To follow up on my preview—after taking time to review the board—I’ve made some decisions regarding this year’s championship.
I didn’t find much value at the top. While Matt Fitzpatrick is, in my opinion, the most likely winner, I wasn’t thrilled about taking him at a short number. As for Ben Griffin, there’s enough uncertainty to keep me away for now, though I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him lift the trophy.
I’ve opened my card with Hideki Matsuyama, for every reason outlined in the preview. From there, I’ve opted to load up on players in the mid-range and near triple digits. I felt this approach offered better value than forcing a play on a top-tier name I wasn’t sold on.
Mid-to-Longshots I'm Adding This Week:
Lucas Glover (40-1) – His driving accuracy and iron play make him a great course fit. Of course, he's a past champion here, but what stands out more is how he’s continued to show solid form even on tracks that didn’t suit him perfectly. I think he's trending toward a serious run.
Si Woo Kim (35-) – I just couldn’t ignore the iron form—it’s been lights out. I don’t care that he missed the cut at the 3M. Historically, South Koreans have fared well here, and if he can just be neutral with the putter, he could absolutely contend.
Michael Kim (100-1) – A well-rounded player who had a solid run of form earlier in the year. He caught my eye. If he finds a spark again, I think he could play his way into the mix.
Andrew Novak (70-1) – Another guy who flashed early-season form, especially with a strong showing at Harbour Town. He should feel at home in this part of the country, and the former Wofford Terrier fits nicely here.
Davis Thompson (70-1) – He’s improved here each time he’s teed it up, and I expect this to be a track he plays well at for years to come. The form isn't ideal, but the number is fair.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (50-1) – Maybe my favorite play down the board. His profile—driving accuracy, solid irons, short game, and putting—aligns with what has historically worked here. There’s no need to overpower this place, which suits him well. I like him anywhere from 90-1 down to 50-1.
Byeong Hun An (110-1) – The putter’s been a disaster, no way around it. But the ball-striking has been terrific, and he has great history here. If he can somehow find a warm week with the flatstick, he’s got upside.
Kevin Roy (110-1) – Looked to be figuring things out at the John Deere and Rocket Mortgage. He consistently gains in driving accuracy, which gives him a puncher’s chance here. I’m not putting too much stock into his 3M or Barracuda finishes—very different setups.
Nico Echavarría (90-1) – He’s been sniffing around a breakthrough and feels due for a moment. This could be the place where he finally puts four rounds together.
Ryo Hisatsune (120-1) – The young Japanese talent grabbed a T3 here last year in his first appearance, and followed it up with a T4 at Innisbrook. There’s a trend developing, and I think this type of layout suits him nicely.
Final Thought:
Rather than force action up top where the value felt thin, I found it more worthwhile to round out the card with talented players further down the board—each of whom brings a compelling case to the table. Look for my final betting card to be released on Wednesday night where I will nail down my final selections!