Week 1: CFB is Back (for real)
Big matchups spread across 4 days. If only it were like this every weekend.
College football is BACK! For real, this time. In fact, it’s conducting a full-on hostile takeover of the airwaves for four days. Week 0 did its job in getting the whistles wet (shoutout Kansas for the W to kick us off). Now Week 1 is here, the full buffet, when everyone laces ‘em up, pops pads, and headbutts their strength coach. Boy, do we have some high-powered matchups in store this weekend. We were hoping to get some plays out today but, unfortunately, were not able to do so. Plenty more meat on the bone, however. Let’s get into it!
Friday Night: Auburn ML (-125) @ Baylor — 3 units
Auburn enters Year 2 under Hugh Freeze with plenty to like. The Tigers averaged 6.1 yards per play in SEC contests last season, third-best in the league, and return a defense that was fourth in the conference in yards allowed per play. Add in one of the country’s most improved WR rooms — Eric Singleton Jr., Cam Coleman, and Malcolm Simmons — and the pieces are there for a leap.
The wild card is Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold. His 2024 numbers were ugly (5.78 yards per attempt, 56% “dead-end throw rate”), but context matters: OU’s receivers were decimated by injuries, the O-line was a sieve, and the staff was in flux. Now he steps into Freeze’s QB-friendly system with far better support. Even if he’s not flawless, Auburn doesn’t need him to be.
Baylor isn’t a pushover, however. They finished 8–5 in 2024 and bring back experience. Spavital’s tempo-first offense hasn’t been stress-tested against many physical fronts, which should be exposed in this spot. Auburn’s defensive line, led by Marcus Harris and Keldric Faulk, should have the edge in disrupting rhythm. And the Bears’ defense, ranked 82nd in EPA/play last season and particularly vulnerable to explosives, looks like a rough matchup against Auburn’s rebuilt receiver corps.
The Pick: Auburn ML (-125, Caesar’s). Arnold may still be a work in progress, but the roster edge is real. Auburn should open 2025 with a statement - “War Eagle”
Saturday Feature: Texas +1.5 vs. Ohio State — 4 units
No. 1 vs. No. 3. The defending champs vs. the preseason darlings. The Horseshoe as the stage. Texas v. Ohio State is billed as the “biggest opener ever” and, for once, that’s not just hype.
The quarterback matchup is, of course, the headline. For Texas, it’s finally Arch Manning’s show, and the heir hasn’t shied away from the spotlight. He looked the part in relief of Quinn Ewers last fall, and with Sarkisian tailoring the offense around his quick release and mobility, expectations are as high as ever in Austin, and that’s saying something. Ohio State turns to Julian Sayin, the former No. 1 recruit who redshirted in 2024. Sayin has the tools, but Saturday will be his first real college snaps…against one of the most complete rosters in the nation.
That roster is the edge. Texas returns more proven starters, including a defensive front that held OSU phenom Jeremiah Smith to three yards in January’s semifinal. The Longhorns’ balance and depth, especially in the back seven, give them answers that even elite SEC offenses struggled to find last season. Ohio State still has top-end star power in Smith and Caleb Downs, but breaking in eight new defensive starters against a QB as polished as Manning is a dangerous equation.
And the market agrees. This line opened at Texas +3, but sharp money quickly pulled it down toward +1/1.5. With only about 30% of ML tickets on Texas, that’s clear reverse line movement, indicating that respected money is backing the Longhorns even as the public leans Buckeyes.
Winning in Columbus is never easy, but the expanded playoff makes this more about seeding than survival. Texas has the better quarterback, the steadier line play, and the defense that already proved it can frustrate Ryan Day’s system.
The Pick: Texas +1.5 (-110, MGM). Manning’s debut doubles as a Heisman campaign kickoff and the Horns plant their flag as the team to beat in 2025.
Saturday: Syracuse +14 vs. Tennessee — 2 units
Tennessee fans spent the offseason adjusting to life without Nico Iamaleava, who bolted for UCLA after a rollercoaster debut and a head-scratching, drama-filled departure (to put it kindly). Enter, stage-right, Joey Aguilar, the journeyman who threw an FBS-high 14 interceptions last year at Appalachian State before a brief stop at UCLA before landing in Knoxville. He’s experienced, but he’s volatile…and SEC defenses punish mistakes.
Syracuse turns to Notre Dame transfer Steve Angeli, who won the QB job this summer and brings steady leadership to Fran Brown’s first full season. The Orange won’t overwhelm anyone, but they return enough veteran production up front to hang around.
Fourteen points is a lot for an opener where Tennessee is breaking in a new QB with turnover baggage.
The Pick: Syracuse +14 (-110, MGM). The Vols may win, but the Orange are live to keep it within two scores.
Saturday: Alabama -13.5 vs. Florida State — 3 units
Kalen DeBoer enters Year 2 in Tuscaloosa under pressure after an uneven debut. But, compared to Florida State, the Tide look like a model of stability. Alabama’s offensive line and defensive front are intact, and another offseason in DeBoer’s system should only sharpen QB Ty Simpson and his stacked receiving core, led by Ryan Williams.
Florida State? A full reboot. The Seminoles started 2024 0-1, causing a fan to be socially pressured to fulfil a promise of eating shit, followed by a full collapse to 2–10, finishing bottom-5 nationally in virtually every offensive stat and forcing all FSU fans to figuratively consume shit with their eyes every week. Their new QB, Boston College transfer Thomas Castellanos, is shifty but unproven, and he’ll be playing behind a line and with receivers who just met. The defense is similarly patched together with transfers.
Covering two touchdowns would count as progress for FSU.
The Pick: Alabama -13.5 (-115 MGM). Bama steadies the ship, and even in “transition,” the Tide are still a different class.
Saturday: Clemson -3.5 vs. LSU — 3 units
LSU has lost its opener five years in a row, and Brian Kelly knows it. Since 2022, the Tigers are just 2–7 vs. ranked opponents, often folding after halftime. Garrett Nussmeier is good enough to flip that script, as shown last year along with the pre-season expectations in Baton Rouge of Heisman. Despite the firepower both returning and coming in through the portal, the rest of the roster is still inconsistent, especially on defense.
Clemson, meanwhile, looks ready to climb again. Making pulling teeth look easy, Dabo Swinney finally dipped into the portal for depth, and senior QB Cade Klubnik has evolved from beleaguered underclassman to polished leader. Add in pieces from a defense that ranked top-10 nationally last year along with 2 future draft picks and the Tigers feel more like their pre-pandemic selves.
Until LSU proves it can win an opener, the benefit of the doubt goes elsewhere.
The Pick: Clemson -3.5 (-110 Hard Rock). Klubnik and Clemson’s defense give Dabo his first big win in years and LSU’s Week 1 woes continue.
Value hunting, parmesan dusting — see you at the window.
Summary:
Auburn ML (-125, Caesars)
Texas +1.5 (-110, MGM)
Syracuse +14 (-110, MGM)
Alabama -13.5 (-110, MGM)
Clemson -3.5 (-110, Hard Rock)