Welcome back College Football! Ohhhh how we’ve missed you, beautiful. Gone are the dog days of summer (thank you for carrying us through, Blue Horseshoe!), and so is MLB’s spotlight — ‘til October, that is (unless you’re a Reds or Mets fan…have fun with watching both of your teams try and clinch that first flight to Cancun rather than the last Wild Card spot).
I, Haddogiorno, am going to do my best to lead us all through a profitable gridiron season and add a little freshly grated parmesan on your bankroll; and I’m beyond thrilled y’all are here to join us. Let’s get into it, shall we?
Why Kansas?
Week 0 isn’t about overthinking. It’s about spotting the mismatches before the market catches up. Kansas returns one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the country in Jalon Daniels, who’s now surrounded by a versatile skill group and one of the deepest offensive lines in the Big 12. This is a unit that finished top-15 nationally in yards per play last season and brings back enough firepower to expect more of the same. With Daniels’ dual-threat ability and receivers who can stretch the field, the Jayhawks have balance, explosiveness, and stability — three things Fresno won’t have answers for in Week 0.
Why Not Fresno State?
Fresno State, meanwhile, enters with a first-year head coach, an unproven passing game, and only four defensive starters returning. Their 9 wins last season were propped up by a +10 turnover margin, arguably the most regression-prone stat on that side of the ball. Strip that away, and you’re left with a Mountain West roster that looks light in the trenches and thin on experience against a seasoned Big 12 squad in their own (brand new) back yard.
The Line
This spread opened at -14 back in the summer. It dipped as low as -12.5, as if many thought the old Big 12 punching bag still resided in Lawrence, and now sits at -13 at most books. That’s a discount buy, in my opinion, and I believe it’ll likely close back near the two tuddies it opened at. Fresno might hang around for a quarter, but over all four, Kansas’s experience and balance should pull away.
The Pick
Kansas -13 (At time of post, -12.5 available at FanDuel). Don’t overthink it. Lay it, trust the talent, and enjoy watching a Big 12 dark horse flex. The Jayhawks set the tone early for a program that truly believes it’s moved past being a punchline.
We wanted to get y’all an inaugural play as we approach Week 0, but there will be multiple plays each week! Write-ups will vary.
In the meantime, sharpen those cheese graters — see you on Saturday.