“You don’t beat anybody by thinking about losing.”
-Pete Rose, Hit King.
This is an ace tax spot.
Skenes is driving the number, but the underlying gap doesn’t justify this kind of separation.
Andrew Abbott is a strong enough counter to keep this game controlled early, and the Cincinnati Reds offense is built to generate just enough pressure — contact, traffic, and pitch count — especially with Skenes unlikely to go deep.
Quietly, this also sets up well on the back end. The Reds didn’t need their top bullpen arms yesterday, so they come in fresh with a clear leverage advantage once this gets past the starters.
Projection is tight, outcomes cluster around one run, and the number is stretched.
Selection: Reds +1.5 (-120) risking 1 unit.
Discipline Trumps Conviction, in bocca al lupo.