on hitting slumps: “They're like sleeping in a soft bed. Easy to get into and hard to get out of."
-Johnny Bench
Edge Type: Bullpen availability/recency bias + lineup optimization
The market is probably properly pricing the starting pitching matchup. Chase Burns, “The Kid”, has undoubtedly been electric. However, our model is showing Cincinnati owning the bullpen availability advantage, which becomes increasingly important with a young starter on the mound. Moreover, the terrible recent form of the bullpen might provide an opportunity here to fade that narrative. One of the best bullpens in baseball for the first month of the season quickly became one of the worst in baseball in the second month of the season. The ‘truth’ probably lies somewhere in the middle and we get a opportunity to take advantage of the recency bias of the public here with some additional rest which can only help given the postponement of the Cardinals game on Sunday. Finally, it seems that Tito Francona’s relentless lineup tinkering has found a lineup structure that has seemingly clicked into place.
These subtle model inputs push the fair price to -135 and that’s enough separation to get involved.
The risk is Burns’ inexperience. If he struggles to work efficiently through the order the first time, the game script changes quickly.
Play: Reds ML -120 — 1u
Discipline Trumps Conviction, in bocca al lupo.