The Playoffs Begin: FedEx St. Jude Championship Preview

We venture to Memphis... Rainmain Maroochi sets up the preview.

As we shift our focus toward the FedEx Cup Playoffs, all eyes are on Cameron Young—currently holding a five-shot lead over Nico Echavarria heading into the final round in North Carolina. It's been a long time coming for Young, whose body of work has long merited a breakthrough win on the PGA Tour. And yet, he's always been the type of player I could never quite back in this spot.

The iron play has been stellar this week, no doubt. But up to this point in 2025, Young hadn't exactly been lighting it up. He's leaned more heavily into a driver-putter identity, but even that combo had lacked the firepower needed to close the deal. Still, should he get it done on Sunday, I’ll be genuinely happy for him. A little good fortune at the right time and he could already be a major champion. Instead, he remained loyal to the PGA Tour—turning down LIV offers—and promptly fell into a prolonged slump. A win would be a feel-good moment for a guy who’s earned better.

If Echavarria flips the script and comes from behind, it’d be a massive result for the Mendoza Boys and another outright hit. Either way, it’ll be a meaningful close to the regular season.

Now, we turn the page and head to Memphis for the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind.

TPC Southwind returns as the host of the FedEx St. Jude Championship. The format shifts to a no-cut, 70-man field, meaning final participants are still fighting for their spot in Memphis. As such, the full field won’t be finalized until later tonight—but the core group is set and gives us plenty to talk about.

Rory McIlroy will not play. Citing the adjustment of final strokes, he’s chosen to rest and focus on the final two events, with no need to accumulate more points.

Other than Rory, this field will include everyone. In a 70-man, no-cut event, you can fully expect Scottie Scheffler to be the overwhelming favorite. He hasn’t been seen since his Open Championship victory, and—surprise, surprise—he fits well here.

Let’s take a look at the golf course and what we can expect.

🏌️ TPC Southwind – Course Details

• Location: Memphis, Tennessee

• Par: 70

• Yardage: ~7,244 yards

• Grass Types:

  • Fairways: Zoysia

  • Greens: Champion Bermuda

• Architect: Ron Prichard (with consultation from Fuzzy Zoeller & Hubert Green)

• Opened: 1988

• Bunkers: Over 90

• Water Hazards: In play on 11 holes

• Key Stats:

  • Typically ranks among the most difficult non-major courses on Tour

  • Historically favors strong approach play and scrambling

  • Putting on Bermuda greens plays a critical role

• Signature Hole:

  • Hole 11 – Par 3 with an island green (often compared to TPC Sawgrass’ 17th)

• Notable Finish:

  • Hole 18 – Par 4 with water lining the entire left side, requiring a precise approach to an exposed green

Course Fit Breakdown – TPC Southwind

DataGolf ranks TPC Southwind as a mid-pack course in terms of predictive strength. But one of the course’s primary defenses is water. Anytime you introduce water hazards, you spike the variability—and that’s going to add volatility to the leaderboard.

Take Scottie Scheffler, for example. In the Open Championship, he pulled a wedge from 130 yards into the deep stuff. From there, he hacked it to 10 feet and rolled in the putt. On average, that kind of mistake will cost a player—but in that moment, the best player in the world showed why he is. Now imagine the same swing at Southwind. Instead of rough, there’s a decent chance the ball finds a water hazard. That’s a full stroke penalty no matter what. Same swing, drastically different outcome. That’s what makes water such a defining feature—big numbers come into play fast.

We saw a similar situation at the 3M Open. Water was again the primary defense, and DataGolf suggested that accuracy was more important than distance. I argued that was slightly misleading. The winning formula seemed clearly defined: distance was a huge advantage if you could simply avoid the big miss. Kurt Kitayama proved that. He used his length as a major asset, paired with elite mid and long iron play.

But this week is different.

At Southwind, water only comes into play off the tee on about five holes. The real defense here is the missed fairway penalty. At TPC Twin Cities, the rough wasn’t all that penal—only the big miss was. But at Southwind, the big miss is extremely penal, and even a standard miss into the primary Bermuda rough is a problem. It adds a second layer of defense.

Just like this week at Wyndham, controlling the golf ball starts with hitting the fairway. That’s why I believe driving accuracy matters more than distance this week. The Bermuda rough here removes control from the player. It can jump, it can come out dead, and there's no consistency with spin. Case in point: Andrew Novak hit a pitching wedge 200 yards on a flyer lie. I’ve never seen a more confused look on a golfer’s face.

I’m not going to penalize distance altogether—it still matters. But it needs to be used tactically. One good example of that is Will Zalatoris. You might say, “Wait, Zalatoris wasn’t known for driving accuracy when he won here.” True. But that week, what carried him was his elite middle and long iron play.

That’s the single most important skill set in my opinion.

Look at the list of players who’ve thrived here:

• Sepp Straka

• Russell Henley

• Collin Morikawa

• Lucas Glover

• Hideki Matsuyama

• Viktor Hovland

• Tommy Fleetwood

• Abraham Ancer

They all share a consistent theme: precise middle-to-long iron play. And in most cases, they paired that with an accurate drive into the fairway. That’s how you unlock Southwind.

Adding another layer to that: the wind—or rather, the subtle Southwind that gives the course its name. It’s not known for being a consistently brutal weather site, but it can swirl and shift enough to create doubt, especially on mid to long irons into these small greens. It’s not the forecasted 20+ mph gusts that change everything—it’s the unpredictable, in-between stuff that messes with sight lines, trajectory control, and feel. That’s why I value elite iron players even more this week. When you can flight the ball both ways and hit your yardages under visual discomfort, that’s an edge.

Now, let’s talk greens. They’re small, grainy, Champion Bermuda. Not overseeded. That inherently places a premium on scrambling, but this is where things get interesting. DataGolf actually shows a lower-than-average correlation between success around the green and overall performance at this course.

And in some cases, that checks out. Look at Straka. Look at Morikawa. I’d say I fall somewhere in the middle here. There are different ways to skin a cat, but for me, the ideal player profile is someone who:

• Hits a ton of fairways

• Excels from 150–200 yards

• Can consistently find these small greens

A great short game never hurts—especially when GIR% drops—but I don’t think it’s how you win here. Hideki, widely regarded as one of the best around the greens, actually lost strokes ARG last year and still won. It was the irons and putter that carried him.

As for the putting surface: these are grainy Champion Bermuda greens, and again, they are not overseeded—a key detail to keep in mind when evaluating putting splits.

Key Model Inputs for TPC Southwind:

• Total Driving, with emphasis on accuracy over distance

• Iron Play, with focus on 150–200 yards

• Ability to flight irons in crosswinds or swirling conditions

• Short Game, especially on Bermuda lies

• Champion Bermuda Putting

• Course History Metrics

• Comp Courses for Contextual Fit:

  • East Lake

  • TPC Sawgrass

  • Harbour Town

  • PGA National

  • Pebble Beach

  • Sedgefield

  • Waialae

None of them are perfect, but each offers crossover insights that should help build a well-rounded model.

Making the Case Against Scottie Scheffler

To no one’s surprise, Scottie Scheffler sits at the top of the model inputs this week. And look—I’m scared of him every time he steps on a golf course. He’s the best tactical driver in the world when it comes to hitting it long and straight to a specific target. He’s also the best middle iron player in the game. He continues to break down every narrative built against him.

But if you’re looking to make a case against Scheffler this week, it starts on the greens.

Unlike courses like TPC Sawgrass or TPC Scottsdale—where overseed creates consistent and true putting surfaces—Southwind’s Champion Bermuda greens are grainy, bumpy, and full of variability. You can hit your line and still miss. They introduce randomness in a way that mirrors West Coast poa. That’s not Scheffler’s ideal environment.

We’ve seen it before. When the putting surface introduces a lack of control—whether it’s unpredictable grain, unexpected breaks, or late-day bumpiness—Scottie gets visibly uncomfortable. It showed up at the Scottish Open. He looked baffled. You saw it again at Pinehurst, where the wiregrass around greens created a layer of randomness he couldn’t shake. He’s at his best when he can calculate and control the outcome. But Southwind has just enough chaos baked into its greens to unsettle him.

Can he still win? Of course. He’s Scottie Scheffler.

But if he doesn’t, this would be the reason why.

If It’s Not Scheffler… Then Who?

If it’s not Scheffler, well—who is it?

I’ll admit, I’m a little terrified to even mention my shortlist. Mostly because… it’s a whole gang of losers. Names that, if you’ve been reading along, you’ve already seen mentioned—and yes, I’m still clinging to hope.

Your Winner: Russell Henley.
If it’s not this week, then sometime very soon. Henley is primed to cap off what’s been an incredible season. He closes the year with three perfect setups: Southwind, Caves Valley, and East Lake. His form and body of work suggest he’s ready to make a serious splash. It’s a massive opportunity. He can be a little gutless at times—but I put him a tier above the other mental midgets.

The Losers: Tommy Fleetwood (shit), Collin Morikawa (son of a bitch), and Patrick Cantlay (god damnit).
They all rate out incredibly well here. The model loves them. The data continues to support them. But you have to ask yourself—do you have any confidence they’re going to win a golf tournament right now? I sure don’t. Still, if you’re betting this event, keep an eye on these names. If the number drifts, you may have to hold your nose and click.

As for real contenders—guys who have both form and course fit—you have to include:

• Hideki Matsuyama (potential bounce back spot from Wyndham)

• Matt Fitzpatrick

• Lucas Glover

• Viktor Hovland

• Xander Schauffele

• Ben Griffin

• Sepp Straka

• Emiliano Grillo

• Daniel Berger (sneaky)

This is the prototype I’m looking for. The names may vary depending on price, but I feel pretty confident in the formula we’ve laid out. We’ll be back sometime on Monday to make some final decisions.

Here’s to a great Sunday of golf.