"Slump? I ain't in no slump... I just ain't hitting.”
-Yogi Berra
1. Cincinnati Reds (-110) @ Oakland Athletics (O/U 9.5)
The Reds were terrible last night in Oakland. Hunter Greene wasn’t his usual dominant self and the bullpen got teed off on despite being well rested. Baseball, like betting, comes and goes in streaks and we’ve been running bad on the diamond lately. Stay disciplined and stick to our process. With that being said, we’re going back to RedLegs here. Our model is showing a nice quantitative edge on the Reds ML in this game projecting a fair ML price closer to -130 and once again we really like this situational spot for them. With the Mets and Giants also losing yesterday the Reds are still in deep contention for the NL Wildcard and need this game like blood to stay in the hunt. Nick Lodolo has arguably been their most reliable pitcher since the All-Star break and look for his dominance to continue in a ‘must-win’ spot.
Selection: Reds ML (-110) to Win 2 units.
2. New York Yankees (+130) @ Boston Red Sox (O/U 7.5)
Our model is showing value on the Red Sox in this spot projecting a fair ML price of closer to -165. Moreover, they’re trying to avoid the series sweep at home against their arch-rival with their Ace on the bump. As y’all know, we don’t lay a lot of -150 chalk but this looks like a good situation to do so. We also are looking to ladder bet the RL as the sleepy Red Sox bats may really come to life in this motivational spot. Look for another quality outing from Garrett Crochet to secure the ML and we’ll see if the Red Sox can generate enough run production behind him to create separation to cash the RL as well.
Selection: Red Sox ML (-150) to Win 1 unit and Red Sox RL (+140) to Win 1 unit.