"The manager of a team is like a stagecoach, he can't move unless he has the horses.”
-Pete Rose, Hit King.
1. Cincinnati Reds (-120) @ Oakland Athletics (O/U 9.5)
Our model is showing a nice quantitative edge on the Reds ML in this game projecting a fair ML price closer to -140. Moreover, we really like this situational spot for them. The Reds are in deep contention for the NL Wildcard and need this game like blood to stay in the hunt. Despite losing the series opener last night, the result was better than looks on paper as the Reds leadoff batter reached based safely 6/9 times and they were a dreadful 0/12 with RISP. Finally, with a travel day on Thursday and only having to go to one reliever last night, the Reds bullpen which has been fantastic as of late should be adequately rested to reinforce a dominant Hunter Greene on the bump if necessary. Pushing our chips in on the Reds offensive variance to mean revert behind rock-solid pitching in a highly motivated spot!
Selection: Reds ML (-120) to Win 2 units.