“If you’re a manager you can’t get frustrated and be emotional. You have to continue to steer the ship, you can’t let go of the wheel because who knows where it will go then.”
-Kirk Gibson
1. New York Yankees (+105) @ Toronto Blue Jays (O/U 8.0)
Our model is showing a nice edge on the Over in this matchup projecting a total score of almost 10 Runs. This partially stems from the Blue Jays somewhat stubbornly deciding to start veteran Kevin Gausman who has been teed off on in his last two starts- one of them being a wildcard-clinching effort. Moreover, he hasn’t been effective in the playoffs over his 13 year career, sporting an ERA of nearly 5. Blue Jays manager John Schneider when pressed on the decision echoed an archaic axiom, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” Another resounding loss for analytics. On the other side of the bump, Luis Gil has a tendency to walk a lot of batters and the Blue Jays are very effective at playing small ball and this could be a recipe for runs. Both of these angles lead us to the Over in this spot.
Selection: Over 8.0 (-105) to Win 2 units.
2. Detroit Tigers (+180) @ Seattle Mariners (O/U 7.0)
Our model is showing a nice edge on the Tigers in this matchup projecting their fair ML price to be closer to +130 and their fair RL price to be closer to -165. Tigers starter Trey Molton got touched in his wildcard appearance on Wednesday giving up 4 earned runs while only recording one out. Tigers manager AJ Hinch will have him on a tight leash early and what could become a bullpen game. We believe the market is overreacting to the Tigers pitching scenario and we will trust our numbers as we attempt to ladder bet the road dawg.
Selection: Tigers +1.5 (-120) to Win 1 unit & Tigers ML (+180) to Win 1 unit.
