Last week’s suggestion was Broncos +3, a play that admittedly I loved. For most of the second half it looked like a winner. However, after taking a peek at Kevin Cole’s Unexpected Points, it was pretty clear the Chargers won the stat sheet. I couldn’t feel too wronged, despite it seeming like a winner. We’ll take the push and try some more early ideas this week.
The Play: Chiefs +3
The eyeball test will tell you these Chiefs don’t resemble previous versions of the team—and I would agree. I was sitting there last night thinking the same thing, actually. The NFL really is a game of trusting your numbers. We love buying Chiefs +3 before the Ravens play the Lions tonight. It’s hard to imagine Baltimore getting upgraded too much—we already make them +7 vs avg. We make the Chiefs +3.7 vs avg. The Ravens will be coming off Monday Night Football; the Chiefs have the rest advantage and 2 to 2.5 points of HFA at Arrowhead. Pending injuries or any major upgrades/downgrades, we would make this Ravens -1. That gives us a chance to buy the Chiefs in a great spot at +3.
Not moving (yet), but on the radar:
• Giants +6 — We make it Chargers -4.5. Chargers get a mild upgrade from Week 3, Giants a mild downgrade, but that’s offset by LAC traveling cross-country while the Giants get a second straight home game. The Giants could get a small boost if pressure mounts on Daboll to play rookie Jaxson Dart.
• Buccaneers +3 — All the Bucs have done is play close games. We make it Eagles -2, so +3 gives us a nice edge.
We’re waiting on those two, as I think they’ll be accessible—or better—closer to gametime.
Let’s keep trusting the numbers and grab Chiefs +3.