1. Dallas Cowboys (-1.0) vs. Chicago Bears (O/U 50.5)
We made this game Bears -1.5 after adjusting for the spot and think this is a great opportunity to fade the public. The Cowboys followed up their impressive W1 performance against the defending Super Bowl champs with a walk-off victory late in overtime against the Giants. We think that game took some starch out of them not only physically, essentially playing an extra quarter of football, but also emotionally. We view this as a hangover spot for the Cowboys who will be fat & happy with their start to the season. On the other hand, the Bears find themselves in a precarious situation starting the season 0-2 and are in desperate need of a win. In our opinion the market is not properly pricing this motivational mismatch and we believe the Bears should be favored in this game. As shared by Josh Appelbaum- NFL teams that are 0-2 and are dogs in Week 3 have gone 37-17 ATS (69%) with a 32% ROI since 2017. Finally, according to DraftKings betslip data the ticket count on the Cowboys at -0.5 is 87% of all bets setting this game up for a public catastrophe. Blue Horseshoe Loves the Bears in this spot.
Selection: Bears ML (-105) to Win 2 units.
2. Arizona Cardinals (+3.0) vs. San Francisco 49ers (O/U 45.5)
We made this game 49ers -1.5 and love catching the key number of 3 here even if we have to pay 10 cents of additional vigorish to do so. The 49ers are once again plagued by injuries early in the season and their home field isn’t worth quite as much here with an easy travel spot for the Cardinals and familiarity with the San Fran track.
Selection: Cardinals +3 (-120) to Win 1 unit.