Play: Denver Broncos +3 (-120 or better)
Key: Get the hook on 3. That’s the edge in this spot.
Pass (for now): Carolina Panthers
• Power ratings flashed value, but with injuries still sorting themselves out, there’s no need to fire early. Wait for cleaner reports.
Why Denver +3
• Power Number: We make this Chargers -1.5 on a neutral. At +3, Denver’s catching clear value.
• Home Field ≈ Minimal: Chargers’ home crowd doesn’t move our number much; L.A. offers limited true HFA.
• Schedule Spot: Chargers are off Monday Night Football rolling straight into a division game. Not ideal.
• Market/Perception: Hot start + Harbaugh/Herbert buzz invites public money on LAC. We’ll take the contrarian side at the key number.
Price & Execution:
• Target: +3 at -120 or better.
• Do not play +2.5; if +3 disappears, consider waiting for buyback or look to re-enter live.
Unit Guidance: Standard 1u at +3 (scales down if price drifts past -125).