Rainman Maroochi Special – Week 2
Last week, we were on Seattle. It didn’t feel like a tough beat, but with all the good fortune in the game, it was still disappointing not to get across the finish line. We move on to Week 2.
This slate doesn’t look nearly as strong to me as Week 1, but there’s one number worth playing.
The Cowboys have received a big overreaction from their Week 1 performance. Dallas does have a slight rest advantage coming off Thursday Night Football, but I don’t weigh that very heavily this early in the season. Later in the year, I’d value it more—especially compared to a team coming off a Monday night.
On raw numbers, we’ve got Dallas 1.5 points worse than an average team and the Giants 4.5 points worse. Add in a 1.8-point home field edge and you land on Cowboys -4.8. But given the division familiarity, the home field gets partially neutralized, and when we apply that situational system (teams off a failed home cover in Week 1 now playing on the road against a Week 1 cover), the adjustment brings us back down to Cowboys -4.
With the market hanging +5.5 on the Giants, that was enough to make this a play. It’s ugly—but it’s the one.
Play: Giants +5.5