Game: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Rainman Maroochi presents you with a golden opportunity to align with the smart money rather than fall into the public narrative.
The public has leaned heavily toward San Francisco in this spot, with 65% of tickets and 74% of money at DraftKings backing the 49ers. That’s no surprise coming off last season’s injury-plagued campaign and the high expectations for a bounce back this year. While I’m bullish on the 49ers long-term, I don’t believe they’ll be fully firing to open Week 1.
The market is quietly showing its hand. We’ve seen reverse line movement, with the spread ticking from Seahawks +2.5 down to +1.5, despite the majority of money on San Francisco. That aligns closely with our own power ratings, which had the 49ers as just 1.4-point favorites before factoring in injuries.
And injuries matter here. According to our trusted partners at SIC Score, this game features the largest injury discrepancy of any Week 1 matchup. Adjusting for that, plus a conservative 1.75-point home field edge for Seattle (which could fairly be argued closer to 2 or even 2.25), we arrive at this game being effectively a pick’em.
Even sharper, Circa Sportsbook has adjusted its board from 49ers -2 down to -1, further confirming where the respected action is flowing.
The Pick: Seattle Seahawks +2 (-110).