Hand up, guys. Last week was poor from the Rainman. The fruit of the crop was tainted by lack of sustenance and rain. We did give you CLV on both Nebraska and quite a bit on Charlotte. Unfortunately, neither result came through. We got crushed on the early Army idea—ironically, they nearly pulled off the comeback. These sorts of trends will happen from time to time.
The key now is to get very selective and get back to form—seeing the ball clearly again. I’ve got a couple of ideas.
The Play: Ole Miss -1.5
You can still find the moneyline in certain places at -130 or better. Kalshi is still trading around -108 if you can get your action there. LSU’s body of work becomes significantly less impressive after the starts from Florida and Clemson. We show tremendous value in this game. We think Ole Miss should be favored by over a touchdown—we think 4 or 5 points would be completely fair. We wanted to jump on this before it moves over a field goal.
The Play: Pittsburgh +3.5 vs Louisville
We essentially think this game should be a pick ’em—perhaps Louisville -1. We love getting the hook over a field goal here in a bounce-back spot. Louisville is performing well under market expectation, having yet to cover this year. However, it doesn’t seem like the market has fully adjusted its rating properly. We expect this to close under a field goal.
Let’s turn it around!