“I'm not sure of any scenario more enjoyable than making 55,000 people from New York shut up."
-Curt Schilling
1. Boston Red Sox (-120) @ Baltimore Orioles (O/U 9.5)
Our model is showing significant value on the Red Sox in this spot- both on the ML and the RL. While the Orioles starting pitcher sports a nice 10-5 record and has won 6 of his last 7 starts, his underlying metrics aren’t actually very impressive. We believe he has taken advantage of a lot of positive variance and is due for some regression. The market is pricing him as a premium pitcher and we believe this is an excellent opportunity to fade this narrative as we attempt to ladder bet the Red Sox.
Selection: Red Sox ML (-120) to Win 1 unit and Red Sox -1.5 (+140) to Win 1 unit.
2. Cincinnati Reds (+125) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (O/U 8.5)
Our model has this game as pick ‘em so we’ve gotta take the nice +money here on the RedLegs. Hunter Greene has been lethal on the bump ever since he came back from injury and we’re looking for that trend to continue in this late night spot with postseason implications.
Selection: Reds ML (+120) to Win 1 unit.