Methodology
We use a model-driven approach (power ratings + spot adjustments + market read) to find edges. Our posts provide the pick, the recommended unit size, and short reasoning. Default unit = 1% of your current betting bankroll. We record every bet publicly and update performance. Read the short rules below so you know how to use our picks and what to expect.
Transparency matters. If you’re going to follow our plays, you should know how we size bets, what our model looks at (high level), how we handle variance, and how we track results. This post explains that so everyone has the same playbook.
Our approach (high level — not a secret sauce):
Core: power ratings that convert into expected lines.
Spot adjustments: home/away travel, weather, rest, injuries, matchup specifics.
Market read: We watch early market steam and public money; sometimes the steam is informative and sometimes it’s noise.
Edge filter: We publish plays where model + spot + market all point to a consistent edge or where we see a clear market overreaction to narrative. We won’t post proprietary formulas or raw model output, but we’ll show you the inputs we care about so you can understand why a pick is live.
Unit sizing & bankroll management:
Default definition (what we recommend): 1 unit = 1% of your current betting bankroll.
Example: If your bankroll is $1,000, 1 unit = $10.
Conservative alternative: 1 unit = 0.5% (safer for variance).
Aggressive alternative: 1 unit = 2% (higher volatility). Why percent-based? It scales with your bankroll and helps you survive losing streaks. If you prefer flat stakes (e.g., $10 per unit), that’s fine — just be consistent and know the risks.
How we size our published selections:
Small edge = 1 unit
Medium edge = 1–2 units
Large edge / strong conviction = 2–3 units Each post will explicitly state unit size. We’ll occasionally add “buy” guidance (e.g., buy at +7 if you can) or a line range to aim for.
Simple staking examples:
Example 1: Pick posted = Dolphins -1.5, Units = 2
Bankroll $2,000 → 1 unit = $20 → Stake = 2 units = $40
Example 2: Jets +7, Units = 1
Bankroll $2,000 → Stake = $20
Record keeping & transparency we keep a public record with these columns (CSV-friendly):
Date | Game | League | Bet (spread/moneyline/total) | Line taken | Units | Stake ($) | Odds | Result (W/L/Push) | Return ($) | Bankroll after we will periodically (weekly or monthly) post performance summaries with ROI, max drawdown, and unit P/L so you can see how the approach performs over time. If you’re a paid member and want more frequent or raw exportable records, we can provide that.
Variance, expected ROI and honesty:
Sports betting is high variance. Even a positive EV system will have substantial losing streaks that will test your metal.
Expect a realistic win rate and variance depending on markets and unit sizing. We’ll report both short-term and long-term results and call out streaks and model updates.
We don’t promise guaranteed profits. We aim for long-term positive EV and transparency about results. We have a very strong track record of getting Closing Line Value (CLV), but that does not guarantee profitability over a short duration.
Rules we follow (quick checklist):
No chasing: We don’t escalate after loss just to recover losses.
Line discipline: We set a target line based on the model and only bet if available within a reasonable range.
Bankroll-first: We recommend an initial bankroll large enough to handle variance (size depends on unit % you choose).
No secret bets: No “private” bets that aren’t recorded
Limits on exposure: We won’t put more than a small % of bankroll on a single event
How to use our selections:
Casual follower: Treat 1 unit as a guideline. Scale down if you want less volatility.
Copy-bettor: Use percent-based units and keep your own log that mirrors our public record.
Do your own work: Use our comment/reasoning to decide whether you share our edge or have additional info that changes the play.
FAQs:
Q: What is a “unit” again?
A: A unit is your chosen stake size. We recommend 1 unit = 1% of your betting bankroll by default.
Q: Do you recommend parlays?
A: No. Parlays increase variance and usually reduce EV for followers. We’ll mention them only if they’re profitable EV trades and will flag them. Rare examples will include positive correlated events such as weather patterns affecting multiple venues at the same time in similar manners.
Responsible gambling & legal stuff:
Betting involves risk. Only wager money you can afford to lose.
Rules and legality vary by state/country — follow local laws.
We publish informational leans and performance data; this is not financial advice.
If you want more transparency (paid member perks):
For paying members we can: share raw pick logs more frequently, post mid-week model outputs, run member-only Q&As on methodology, and provide deeper breakdowns of sample plays. If that interests you, let us know and we’ll outline a members-only offering.