Our horse racing coverage is finally back after a very successful Saratoga meet where our recommended selections resulted in a profit of +101 units! These results were attained by being rigorous in our handicapping approach, extremely selection oriented and structuring our wagers properly. You have to operate this way in order to grind out a profit in such a high-takeout game. We have a lot of new subscribers, some who are not familiar with horse racing, and we will try to make our handicapping digestible for new horseplayers and seasoned veterans alike. We’re glad that you’re here as we venture into the Keeneland fall meet together- a journey that will be filled with world class racing, some nice winners and a couple inevitable bad beats along the way. Stay disciplined with your bankroll, let’s have some fun and see y’all at the windows!
Race Five #1 Morlock- We think this 3YO colt will offer nice value in this spot. Career maidens like this often get discounted by the market, but this is a situation where he might finally get across the finish line first. This horse has been running in route races throughout his career, including his first start off of an extended layoff last time out and we believe the turnback to 7 furlongs might just be what he needs. Moreover, this horse likes to be forwardly-placed and we don’t envision an abundance of speed in here. Drawing the 1 hole with Luis Saez aboard only means one thing here- SEND. Finally, conditioner Eddie Kenneally has had a lot of success on the Keeneland main track over the past 5 years with Luis Saez in the irons they’ve achieved an impressive 25% Win Rate resulting in a +30% ROI! Look for him to be on or near the lead early and for him to be able to display nice finishing ability in his second start off the layoff as he cuts back in distance from route races.
Betting Structure
Doubles:
2 units on 1/6 DD
1 units on 1/10 DD
5 units to Place
Race Six #6 In The Stars & #10 Eunomia- The #6 In The Stars is a standout in this field to us. Her two turf starts are significantly better than all of her tries on dirt. It is clear this is what she wants to do. Moreover, her last race at Kentucky Downs was sensational with that ability figure towering over the rest of this field- we even upgraded that visually dominant effort as the 2nd and 3rd place finishers out of that affair both came back to win and improve their figure in their following starts. Furthermore, Kentucky Downs has proven to be a great venue to prep at going into turf racing at Keeneland as the idiosyncratic nature of the course with its undulations results in extra conditioning and stamina for horses’ following starts. We also have a lot of trust in astute horseman Rusty Arnold slowly getting horses to move forward like this- a Lexington native who specifically targets this meet. There’s ample early speed signed on and we’ll look for Luis Saez to work out a trip from midpack and be able to produce her big finish in the lane. The interesting other horse we’ve identified is the #10 Eunomia. She should get a patient ride from legendary jockey Frankie Dettori and be able to similarly take advantage of the projected fast pace in here. Although her form is a little dirtied up, we had a huge trip on her race in Keeneland in the spring where she was hopelessly taken out of the race as a horse bolted on the final turn, but to our surprise she fought back on and rallied gamely through the lane inside of a rival. She showed a lot of heart in that effort and we think she might savor this Keeneland turf course and is in the hands of another local conditioner who has a tendency to outperform at this meet.
Betting Structure:
Doubles
5 units on 6/5 DD
2 units on 6/6 DD
2 units on 10/5 DD
1 unit on 10/6 DD
Exactas
2 units on 6/10 EX
1 unit on 10/6 EX
Race Seven #5 Nakatomi & #6 Here Mi Song- Although this race features a short field, it is still an interesting handicapping puzzle. The #3 and #4 horses both prefer to be on the lead. The former is a certified Oaklawn Park lover and Steve Asmussen has had terrible statistics at Keeneland going back for years now. The latter is perhaps more trustworthy, but looks like he’s going to have pressure on the front end considering Wesley Ward has seemingly entered the #2 horse in here to inject even more pace to set up for his big closer #5 Nakatomi, our top selection. He should get the right setup and has an affinity for this Keeneland main track. Our interesting horse to go with him is the #6 Here Mi Song who goes out for low profile connections, but should sit a great outside stalking trip as he lets the speed develop to his inside. He has similarly shown an affinity for this track and has been rounding back into form in his last two starts.
Betting Structure:
Doubles:
2 units on 5/2 DD
1 unit on 6/2 DD
Exactas:
2 units on 5,6 EX BOX
Race Eight #2 Mackinac- This is an interesting edition of the G2 Jessamine, a Breeders Cup qualifier, and features the return of the highly touted #12 Time to Dream who was extremely impressive at Saratoga over the summer. We’re worried about the post position for her, but think she’ll still be able to produce her big late run. Although there’s a lot of speed signed on in here, we will try to use a little bit of the #3 Carolyncaroline who was compromised by a fast pace last time out at Kentucky Downs but still managed to hang on well- resulting in an ability figure upgrade. Leparoux has soft, French hands and might be able to sit a nice pocket trip if a couple of the other speeds are intent on gunning at all costs. The horse that we’ve identified as the best value is #2 Mackinac. She also comes in from Kentucky Downs and should be extra fit. Although some handicappers might view the 6.5 furlong configuration there as more of a sprint, we think it actually plays more like a route so we’re less worried about the stretch out in distance for her. Finally, she’s also in the hands of patient horseman Rusty Arnold and as mentioned earlier he is a magician at getting his horses to show improvement from start to start, especially early in their career progression. We think this filly will sit a cozy, ground saving trip towards midpack and be able to finish up nicely in the lane.
Betting Structure
Exactas
2 units on 2,12 EX BOX
1 unit on 2,3 EX BOX
“In bocca al lupo.”