“It is not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races.”
-Mark Twain
Can you feel it? Another Keeneland spring meet is upon us and our horse racing coverage is finally back by popular demand after a very successful 2025 campaign. Those results were attained by being rigorous in our handicapping approach, extremely selection oriented and structuring our wagers properly. You have to operate this way in order to grind out a profit in such a high-takeout game. We have a lot of new subscribers, some who are not familiar with horse racing, and we will try to make our handicapping digestible for new horseplayers and seasoned veterans alike. We’re glad that you’re here with us as we venture into the Keeneland spring meet together- a journey that will be filled with world class racing, some nice winners and a couple inevitable bad beats along the way. Stay disciplined with your bankroll, let’s have some fun and see y’all at the windows!
Race Two #11 N Z Holly- This three year old filly is an interesting price shot to start the card. After debuting on a synthetic surface, she found herself stuck on a dead rail at Oaklawn and still managed to win and then was caught wide next time out trying to close into an inside speed biased track- we believe that effort looks a lot better than it appears on paper. Furthermore, the form of that race has been flattered by several of the horses that have come back to run well and validate that figure. The presence of Flavien Prat in the irons will certainly drive down the price, but he should be able to work this filly over into a nice stalking trip from the outside draw. As shown below, this Trainer/Jockey combo has had tremendous success together in similar spots at Keeneland over the past five years.
Race Seven #7 A Fine Chardonnay- This filly should be primed for this spot. In typical Ian Wilkes fashion, she has been conservatively conditioned and we expect to see continued improvement throughout her young racing career. She’s tried to close into two consecutive glacial paces and today should be primed for her best effort to date and she should sit a perfect outside stalking trip.
Race Nine #2 Percy’s Bar - This precocious filly certainly has the best namesake among the field. The chalk will obviously be tough be tough to beat in here, but there’s enough reason to project improvement for her to be very competitive with the #3. First, you can project routine improvement for age from two to three often about 10 points on the Beyer scale. Furthermore, physically this filly has really grown into herself as evidence in her morning preparations. She’s been working up an absolute storm at Keeneland for the past five weeks. Benny Colebrook is a local Lexington guy who points for this meet and has a boutique operation. I’m sure the first thing on his mind in the morning is getting this filly into the starting gate at Churchill for the Kentucky Oaks. Finally, she’s had two really rough trips in a row- getting DQ’d in the Alcibiades last fall where she was certainly best and then getting bounced around down on the rail at the Breeders Cup. Look for her to get better trip today from the ideal inside draw on this track configuration and see y’all afterwards at Percy’s Bar!
Discipline > Conviction. “In bocca al lupo.”