“Every day is a new opportunity. You can build on yesterday's success or put its failures behind and start over again. That's the way life is, with a new game every day, and that's the way baseball is." - Bob Feller
1. Miami Marlins (+190) @ Milwaukee Brewers (O/U 8.5)
This is more of a pure model-based play as our projected total comes in right around 7.5 suggesting Under 8.5 should fairly priced around -175 versus the market price of -120.
Selection: Under 8.5 (-120) to win 1 unit
2. Philadelphia Phillies (+135) @ New York Yankees (O/U 10.5)
This is another mostly model-based play as our projected matchup data has this game pretty close to pick-em suggesting the Phillies are offering good value today. We believe this stems from a public perception that this is a good spot for the Yankees as they are returning home from two consecutive road series out of the All-Star break; however, we believe this is a good example of an overblown public narrative that gets over-baked into the price. Coming home from a long road trip can also be distracting for players given family/relationship dynamics. If the Yankees had lost several games in a row we would be more likely to buy into the idea that this was a good, focused home spot for them, but that is not the case. We’re fading the public and backing the Phils at nice +money tonight in the Bronx in a game we think should be pick-em
Selection: Phillies ML (+135) to win 1 unit