CFB Week 5: Squeaking By
"The grind of the season never stops. You either get better or you get worse — you don’t stay the same.” - Nick Saban
Week 4 left us right where Mendoza lives: even on the sheet but still finding a way to grind out something positive. We went 2-2 for +1.9 units thanks to grating a little extra on Iowa and the expected track meet in Memphis. I still don’t understand what Arkansas was trying to do at the end there, ruining their chance at a quality W…which may have some of you wary of one of our selections below. On the other side, Illinois got run out of the building by Indiana, and Wyoming couldn’t quite hang inside the margin.
That brings us to 9-9 on the season, down just 0.7 units overall. Not flashy, not disastrous, but a bankroll with a pulse as we walk further into the jaws of conference play. We’ll always be honest and transparent here at The Line, we won’t shy away from underperformance. Week 5 gives us another slate of angles to grind, and we like where the numbers have landed. Let’s dive in.
Friday
Florida St. at Virginia — UVA +7
Virginia’s offense has shown real pop this year: through four games they’ve put up over 48, 55, 48 points in wins and nearly kept pace vs. N.C. State in a 35–31 loss. Meanwhile, FSU’s been explosive, averaging in the upper 600s in total offense, but they haven’t been tested much against a balanced, attack-and-defend system like UVA’s. The ‘Noles defense has been suspect as well. The market seems to agree: this line opened +9.5 and has been bet down to +7, with a brief bounce to +7.5. That’s steady sharp pressure on the dog and the flat TD is still a solid entry point. Taking UVA here gives us an important key number and lines us up if FSU falters or the game stays close.
Pick: Wahoos +7 (-105) Caesar’s — 1 unit
Notre Dame at Arkansas — Hogs +4.5
Arkansas is just 1–3 ATS this season, so they haven’t exactly been a darling of the spread. That said, the line’s behavior is intriguing: opening at +6.5, poking +7, then drifting all the way down to +4 before settling at +4.5. This hints at sharp money cutting into Notre Dame’s perceived edge. With Notre Dame’s offensive line and defense showing vulnerability combined with Arkansas’ impressive offensive displays thus far, this is a spot where the home dog may be getting more credit from books than their recent history would suggest.
Pick: Woo Pig +4.5 (-110) Caesar’s — 2 units
Ohio State at Washington — Over 51.5
This total has oscillated like crazy: opened at 48.5, popped to 53.5, dropped back down, flirted with 52.5 and finally resting at 51.5. That kind of chop usually signals models and books dancing with bettors to find a consensus. Washington has been generous to offenses (28+ points allowed in three of four games) but can put up points themselves, even against the Buckeye’s nation-leading scoring defense. OSU has the firepower and tempo to exploit holes if the Huskies’ defense breaks, which is all but guaranteed to happen — they play man on 63.8% of snaps, something Buckeye WR’s will be looking forward to. With both sides trending toward shootouts and the market pushing early toward the over (and since fallen), we want in on this one.
Pick: Over 51.5 (-115) DraftKings — 2 units
Virginia Tech at North Carolina State — Hokies +10.5
VT recently got rid of their head coach after an absolutely abysmal start to the season. In comes Philip Montgomery, and the team showed positive flashes in response, indicating a potential much-needed spark. The Hokies will be without some key defenders, but with the vulnerabilities NC State has shown, I suspect VT will be able to keep up (with some defensive surprises to help). The line opened +7.5 and floated up to +10.5 after some of the injury news and has stayed there. +10.5 gives us some nice cushion, when we really won’t need it, as VT keeps the Pack at a touchdown’s distance.
Pick: Virginia Tech +10.5 — 1 unit
Let’s look to flip into the positive this weekend and never look back. Get your graters out and we’ll see you at the window.
Summary:
(Friday) Virginia +7 (-110) — 1 unit, Caesar’s
Arkansas +4.5 (-110) — 2 units, Caesar’s
Ohio State vs Washington o51.5 (-115) — 2 units, DraftKings
Virginia Tech +10.5 (-105) — 1 unit, FanDuel