Now that’s a bounce back! A solid Week 3 got us back on track — Kansas State being the only one who left us hanging. Georgia Tech might be the real deal, folks. I’m fully on board with the early Haynes King Heisman train. He was a beast last year and I’m glad he’s finally getting the respect he deserves. NC St. handled Wake, as expected and Delaware “Joe Flaccid is Indeed Elite” Blue Hens took out UConn outright. That’s what we like to see
However, in this business, you have to remind yourself that the past is the past and any given week can humble you…and humble hard. The goal here is to, of course, avoid that while continuing to find good value and tick up our bankroll. We have some sneaky good matchups this week — one we’ll touch on — but the value lies in those outside the primetime lens. With that said, let’s ride the wave into Week 4!
Iowa ML vs. Rutgers (Friday): -130
A trip to Piscataway is always a sneaky road test, but Iowa’s defense is downright stingy: top-3 nationally in total yards allowed, just ~10 points per game. Rutgers comes in with offensive line injuries and a passing game that hasn’t shown it can test secondaries like Iowa’s. The line has danced, opening at -115, spiking to -135, then dipping before settling near -130 after the injury news. That back-and-forth tells you the market’s still figuring it out, but with the slight steam in Iowa’s favor, we’re sold. Our numbers had this closer to -4 in favor of the Hawkeyes even before the OL news. In a Friday grinder, trust the Hawkeye defense to travel and get it done outright.
Iowa -130 (DraftKings) — 2 units
Arkansas @ Memphis — Over 60.5
This total has been a rollercoaster: opened 58.5, rocketed to 63.5, and has settled back at 60.5. Arkansas just put up 526 yards in a loss to Ole Miss, and Memphis has the firepower to force the pace on their home turf. Neither defense has consistently shown it can stop explosive plays, and the market movement shows bettors expect fireworks. With both teams built to trade haymakers, and our numbers showing this to be closer to 70 (!!!), we’re riding the Over in a shootout on Beale Street.
Over 60.5 -110 (DraftKings) — 2 units
Illinois +6.5 @ Indiana
Illinois is 3-0, outscoring opponents 135-22. Efficient on offense, stingy on defense — it’s been clean football so far. Indiana is also unbeaten, but they just lost top rusher Lee Beebe Jr. for the season, and that’s a major blow to their ground game. Yes, Illinois is without CB Xavier Scott, so Indiana’s passing attack might find a lane, but +6.5 gives us plenty of room. This is the kind of hard-nosed dog we like to back — one that plays tough, efficient football and forces a four-quarter fight.
Fighting Illini +6.5 -105 (DraftKings) — 1 unit
(+7 is available with some juice at BetRivers for those who have access)
Wyoming +13 @ Colorado
Colorado’s offense has sputtered: weak line play, rotating at QB, and unable to move the chains consistently, particularly on the ground. Wyoming hasn’t lit up the scoreboard, but their defense is legit, holding teams to ~12–13 points and showing toughness against the pass. Line movement tells the story from a different angle: opened +17.5, free-fell through the key +14, and has settled at +13. Public loves Colorado’s flash; sharps grabbed Wyoming early and continue to push the number back down quickly when it’s touched the key “14." The Cowboys aren’t built for highlight reels, but they drag games into the mud and make you earn every yard. If Colorado sputters on offense even a little, Wyoming has the cushion to cover.
Cowboys +13 -105 (Caesar’s) — 1 unit
Summary:
Iowa ML — 2 units
Arkansas vs. Memphis o60.5 — 2 units
Illinois +6.5 — 1 unit
Wyoming +13 — 1 unit
Let’s build on last week and continue the upward trend. Cheers, everyone! See you at the window.