CFB Week 3: Treading Water
"Losing doesn't make me want to quit. It makes me want fight that much harder." -Bear Bryant
Well, we went 2-2 last week. Kansas State’s shocking loss to Army (who lost to Tarleton the week before) stung, and Louisville vs. JMU was far more about defensive grit than offensive fireworks. No shame in either, but it’s a reminder: even the “sure things” can surprise. As you’ll notice, a bit of a shortened version this week, no less desire to cash some tickets.
Thursday:
NC State -7 (-110 Caesars) - 3 units
This one’s got revenge written all over it. Wake Forest hasn’t been able to string together consistent drives — top-5 nationally in explosive rush plays, but bottom-tier in sustaining them — which is how you end up sweating Kennesaw State (!!!) two weeks ago. NC State’s defense is giving up yards (421.5/game) but they stiffen in the red zone, and that’s the difference. The spread’s been seesawing between -7 and -7.5, with sharps grabbing every dip. That’s a market signal louder than the Carter-Finley crowd on a Thursday night. Wolfpack howl, Deacs backpedal.
Friday
Kansas State ML (-115 MGM) - 2 units
The public loves Arizona’s shiny 2-0 start, but Vegas hasn’t budged. K-State is still clinging to “favorite” status, and that’s telling. Arizona’s defense has been elite on paper (4.5 PPG allowed), but it came against lightweights. Kansas State is battle-tested, putting up 254 passing yards/game and holding opponents to just 176.7 through the air. Yes, the run game’s been thin (109 yards/game), but Avery Johnson’s legs give them a bailout button when it matters. K-State is 0-3 ATS, sure, but this isn’t about style points. It’s about gutting out a win. Ugly cats win road fights — it’s what they do.
Saturday
Georgia Tech +3.5 (-122 FanDuel) - 2 units
This is one where the offense and efficiency stats are flashing green. This line crashed from +7.5 to +3 because sharps saw what Clemson backers didn’t. Tech’s offense is humming: a ridiculous 571.5 total yards/game, led by ~300 passing yards/game and ~271.5 rushing yards/game, zero sacks. Brent Key’s group is balanced, nasty up front, and fearless with Haynes King healthy again. Clemson’s defense is still talented, but cracks have shown, and Tech’s style is built to pry them open. Buy the hook, if necessary (unless is goes north of -125). It won’t be pretty, but covers rarely are.Buy into the underdog energy when the line is soft but the offense is sharp.
Delaware +10 (-110 Caesars) - 3 units
This isn’t about pedigree, it’s about matchups…and Delaware’s got one. The Blue Hens are averaging nearly 292 passing yards/game (23rd nationally), exactly where UConn is weakest, coughing up 273 yards/game through the air (119th). Minicucci (distant cousin of ole Marooch) has already piled up 563 yards and multiple TDs. Against a Huskies secondary this leaky, the air raid travels.
Delaware’s run game is thin (110 ypg, bottom-25), but they won’t need it. Throw, throw, throw. Yes, UConn is putting up 39.5 points/game and converts nearly 49% on third downs, but Delaware’s offense can shorten the margin by keeping pace. Oddsmakers opened UConn at -10.5 and have already nudged Delaware toward +10 with sharper action nibbling the dog. FCS no more, this is a live double-digit pup at home — and it smells like value.
Last week was a reminder that even “sure things” can trip on their own shoelaces. But that’s the beauty of the grind — bounce-back spots, market edges, and dogs that don’t know they’re dogs. Four plays, four edges. Numbers in hand, value on the board. No overthinking. Graters at the ready! See you at the window.