Well, Week 1 wasn’t the charcuterie board of winners we ordered… more like someone tossed us Kraft Singles on stale crackers and slid over the bill fit for a night at XS in Vegas. Auburn cashed Friday night, riding Jackson Arnold’s legs and an electric kickoff return. The rest? Let’s just say the cheese grater needs sharpening.
Arch Manning’s debut rivaled Bill Belichick’s for most underwhelming, Bama was introduced back to the land of us peasants, and LSU shook off its season-opening curse, snatching away any iota Clemson thought it had of claiming the “real” Death Valley.
The good news? It’s a long season. The Mendoza Line isn’t built in a day, nor sunk in a week. It’s built on spotting edges, trusting value, and laughing with the football gods when they’re clearly laughing at us.
Week 2 is here and the parmesan is back on the board. In the eyes of TV execs, this slate is kinda ass…but that’s where we do our worst. Let’s right the ship.
Friday: JMU at Louisville — over 55.5
Louisville comes in off a routine EKU tune-up, though the “routine” part hid 12 penalties, 3 turnovers, and a lot of sloppy football. Jeff Brohm’s squad is fast and explosive, but mistake-prone — the kind of cocktail that can fuel points on both sides. James Madison isn’t your average Group of Five guest, either; they just ran for 313 yards in their opener and bring back a healthy Alonza Barnett III, who posted 26 TDs to just 4 INTs before the ACL last year. Add in George Pettaway, the UNC transfer, in the backfield and you’ve got the Dukes capable of breaking big plays. Translation: both offenses have the juice to cook, and Louisville’s tendency to give the ball away keeps the oven on high.
The Line
Opened at 54.5, steamed all the way to 58.5, then settled back to 55.5. That rollercoaster says two things: 1) sharps immediately respected the over, 2) buyback and market correction creates value on the current number.
The Pick
Over 55.5. JMU has the firepower to test Louisville’s defense, and the Cards’ speed along with their penchant for sloppy mistakes only accelerates scoring chances. Expect a track meet with a couple of bonus possessions sprinkled in.
Saturday: Iowa at Iowa State — Iowa +3.5
The Cy-Hawk isn’t pretty, it’s primal. Six of the last 10 meetings have been one-score rock fights, and Iowa has owned the series 8–3 straight up since Matt Campbell took over in Ames. This year, the Hawkeyes finally have something resembling an offense: portal QB Mark Gronowski gives Kirk Ferentz a dual-threat who can actually move the chains, and the run game just churned out 310 yards in Week 1. Pair that with Phil Parker’s annual top-20 defense — stacked up front, disciplined at linebacker, and nasty in coverage — and you’ve got the right formula to drag Iowa State into the mud. The Cyclones lost their best wideouts and look shakier up front, meaning Rocco Becht may spend the afternoon ducking Iowa’s pressure. Ugly? Yes. Valuable? Absolutely.
The Line
Opened Iowa +2, briefly dipped to +1.5, but has steadily climbed to +3.5. That progression shows money moving toward Iowa State, yet we’re more than happy to grab the Hawkeyes with the key hook.
The Pick
Iowa +3.5. Rivalry games this tight make every half-point matter, and the hook is gold. Expect trench warfare, a final in the teens or low 20s, and Iowa hanging well inside the number.
Saturday: Western Kentucky at Toledo — Toledo -7
On paper, this looks like a clash of opposites: Toledo grinding after a tough 24–16 loss to Kentucky, and the Hilltoppers lighting up the scoreboard with 55 on North Alabama. But early-season box scores don’t always tell the full story.
Yes, WKU’s Maverick McIvor has thrown for 700+ yards and 8 TDs in two games, but those came against overmatched defenses. Now he faces a Toledo secondary that held Kentucky to just 85 passing yards and ranks top-15 nationally (albeit after one week and, yes, against Kentucky) against the pass. The Rockets’ defense is built to squeeze explosive offenses, and Jason Candle’s group has made a habit of dictating pace at the Glass Bowl.
Toledo’s offense still needs to clean up penalties and finish drives, but Tucker Gleason and Chip Trayanum have enough juice to stress a Hilltoppers defense that remains soft up front.
The Line
Opened Toledo -4.5, bet up to -7 and even -7.5 in spots. Sharp money showing clear respect for the Rockets despite WKU’s flashy early stats. Get 'em before it crosses above a TD.
The Pick:
Toledo -7. Western Kentucky’s fireworks fade against a defense with real teeth and the Rockets get back on track at home.
Saturday: Army at Kansas State — KSU -17
K-State dodged disaster last week against FCS North Dakota, needing a last-minute TD to avoid embarrassment. That scare sets the stage for a locked-in rebound here. Avery Johnson has been sharp (591 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs) and this roster still grades out far better than the early record. Army, fresh off a double-OT loss to Tarleton State, is walking into a buzzsaw in Manhattan. Army’s triple option always tests discipline, but the Black Knights look like a shell of last year’s 12–2 team. The Wildcats’ defense will see the option early, then adjust, and Avery Johnson should find plenty of room to operate against a Cadets squad that gave up chunk plays in Week 1. Motivation plus mismatch equals “cover city.”
Statistically, the matchup favors the Wildcats. Army runs it well (280 rushing ypg, 15th FBS) but ranks 112th in red zone offense (50%), while K-State’s defense sits 27th nationally in red zone efficiency (66.7%). Army is also 111th in rushing defense, allowing 280 yards per game, which is a problem against Johnson and the Wildcats’ physical line.
The Line
Opened Kansas State -16.5, dipped to -15.5 early, then was bet back up to -17/-17.5 depending on the book. Market showing resistance to Army despite the big number.
The Pick
Take Kansas State -17. After sleepwalking through two games, the Wildcats get right at home. Army can chew clock, but without efficiency in the red zone or balance through the air, K-State should pull away late. Last week was the wake-up call. This week is the statement
The Picks
JMU vs. Louisville — Over 55.5
Iowa +3.5 vs. Iowa State
Toledo -7 vs. Western Kentucky
Kansas State -17 vs. Army
Value hunting, parmesan dusting — see you at the window.