We’ve just wrapped up the first round of the PGA Tour’s season-long playoffs, and the St. Jude is one I’ll gladly forget. I’m not a big Justin Rose fan, but his rally down the stretch was impressive — a bold statement in a pressure moment. Unfortunately, it seems he’s got that “it” factor our boy Tommy Lad just doesn’t have.
To be fair, Tommy never truly looked like a winner until he rolled one in on 12, sparking a run of birdies that gave him a two-shot lead with four to play. The most disappointing moment for me came at the par-5 16th, where his third shot choice was baffling — opting to go high, only for the ball to roll off the green. In that spot, you’ve got to put it on the surface and leave yourself no worse than 10 feet for birdie. He nearly gave it away there, but managed to save par. Still, the momentum was gone.
I do believe he’s too talented not to win on the PGA Tour someday, but boy, it’s tough to watch. His optimism and positivity make him impossible to dislike, but the killer instinct is clearly missing from his repertoire. One day, Tommy Lad… one day.
Anyways, we move on — 50 players remain, and now we head to a course that couldn’t be more different from TPC Southwind. Caves Valley will challenge distance rather than accuracy, minimize the importance of iron play, and reward a driver-putter combo. We have minimal data here — its only notable PGA Tour event was in 2021, when Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau went toe-to-toe, setting scoring records at 27-under. Fairways are wide, rough is not especially penal, and with multiple par-5s and drivable par-4s, this week is all about going low.
Yes, the course has seen renovations since 2021, and I’m sure some will argue it’ll play differently. I doubt it. Let’s dive in.
Here are the key course details for Caves Valley Golf Club:
Location: Owings Mills, Maryland, USA
Designer: Tom Fazio (opened 1991)
Par: 71
Yardage: ~7,542 yards (2021 setup; could vary slightly post-renovations)
Greens: Bentgrass
Fairways: Bentgrass
Rough: Ryegrass & Fescue mix (moderately penal, but not overly thick in 2021)
Notable Features:
Wide fairways encouraging aggressive driving
Minimal missed fairway penalty (2021 data suggested distance > accuracy)
Multiple risk/reward holes, including drivable par 4s (e.g., No. 4, No. 12)
Four par 5s (above Tour average)
Rolling terrain with elevation changes
Greens tend to be large and receptive, but with plenty of contour
Water Hazards: Comes into play on 4 holes
2021 BMW Championship Winning Score: Patrick Cantlay, -27 (playoff over Bryson DeChambeau)
In 2021, Bryson DeChambeau and Patrick Cantlay went head-to-head in one of the most entertaining duels of the year. It was back and forth all weekend, and the scoring pace made for a fascinating watch. The BMW Championship doesn’t really have a set identity — in 2020 at Olympia Fields, Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm battled to a winning score of just 4-under. Contrast that with 2021 at Caves Valley, where Cantlay shot the lights out at 27-under, delivering one of the greatest putting performances in PGA Tour history — gaining nearly four strokes per day with the flat stick.
We do need to be careful not to overreact to a limited sample size. That said, it’s tough to argue against Caves Valley being a driver-putter type of golf course. DataGolf’s course fit model shows one of the strongest correlations between driving distance and success that we’ve seen on Tour, and the 2021 leaderboard backed it up. The top 10 featured many of the game’s longer hitters — DeChambeau, Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Sam Burns, and Erik van Rooyen. A couple of shorter hitters like Abraham Ancer and Sungjae Im also snuck in, but like Cantlay, they relied heavily on short game brilliance to keep pace.
With limited water hazards and a relatively harmless rough, it’s just very difficult to go backwards here. The renovations since 2021 have included tweaks to the bunkering and greens, but without meaningful missed-fairway penalties or major architectural changes, I don’t see the course playing dramatically differently this year. Maybe we get a winning score somewhere between -27 and -20, but I still expect a shootout.
Caves Valley reminds me of a couple of Tour stops we see regularly. First is Quail Hollow — a long course that rewards a strong driver-putter combo. Rory McIlroy has been dominant there, and it’s no surprise that Xander Schauffele has also thrived. The second is Valhalla, with its length, similar agronomy, and comparable scoring conditions.
With that framework in mind, let’s start targeting some names for the week.
With that information, we built out a model that prioritizes total driving — with a strong emphasis on distance over accuracy — and layers in wedge play, scrambling on comparable courses, success at comp tracks like Valhalla and Quail Hollow, Bentgrass putting, Par-5 scoring, short par-4 scoring, and birdie-or-better percentage.
Your Winner: Xander Schauffele (20-1). He’s performed well at this event in the past, but more importantly, he’s been brilliant on every course I think compares well to Caves Valley. His form is trending in the right direction. The biggest weakness this year has been his driving accuracy — but here, it’s bombs away. Get a wedge in hand, even from the rough, get hot around the greens, and I think he wins this week.
I also think this is a great spot for Rory McIlroy (8-1). This is the type of course that best suits his game. The question is whether he can score enough to truly be competitive — we’ll see. The challenge with Rory is that if we back him, it may need to be a single-bullet situation or paired only with a select few others.
Some other names I really like:
Chris Gotterup (40-1) – Put some respect on this guy’s name. He’s been one of the best players in the world over the past two months and might end up being one of the top players on the planet in this style of golf. He absolutely smokes it off the tee and has been rolling the rock with the best of them.
Sam Burns (45-1) – Bound for a win, and the kind of guy who can make birdies in bunches. Continues to be one of the best, if not the best, putters in the world. He’s been in the mix a few times this year, but his history suggests that when he spikes, he wins.
Full disclosure — this is not one of my favorite events. I’m sure the golf course is beautiful, and it could very well make for a compelling weekend, but I’m not expecting it to truly challenge the best players in the world. For that reason, I wouldn’t recommend getting overextended.
It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if we got a weird result here. It also wouldn’t surprise me if Scottie wins by 10. So, the plan is simple: stick to the guys that make the most sense, take our swings, and give it the ole college try.