Week 4 left us right where Mendoza lives: even on the sheet but still finding a way to grind out something positive. We went 2-2 for +1.9 units thanks to grating a little extra on Iowa and the expected track meet in Memphis. I still don’t understand what Arkansas was trying to do at the end there, ruining their chance at a quality W…which may have some of you wary of one of our selections below. On the other side, Illinois got run out of the building by Indiana, and Wyoming couldn’t quite hang inside the margin.

That brings us to 9-9 on the season, down just 0.7 units overall. Not flashy, not disastrous, but a bankroll with a pulse as we walk further into the jaws of conference play. We’ll always be honest and transparent here at The Line, we won’t shy away from underperformance. Week 5 gives us another slate of angles to grind, and we like where the numbers have landed. Let’s dive in.

Friday

Florida St. at Virginia — UVA +7

Virginia’s offense has shown real pop this year: through four games they’ve put up over 48, 55, 48 points in wins and nearly kept pace vs. N.C. State in a 35–31 loss. Meanwhile, FSU’s been explosive, averaging in the upper 600s in total offense, but they haven’t been tested much against a balanced, attack-and-defend system like UVA’s. The ‘Noles defense has been suspect as well. The market seems to agree: this line opened +9.5 and has been bet down to +7, with a brief bounce to +7.5. That’s steady sharp pressure on the dog and the flat TD is still a solid entry point. Taking UVA here gives us an important key number and lines us up if FSU falters or the game stays close.

Pick: Wahoos +7 (-105) Caesar’s — 1 unit

Notre Dame at Arkansas — Hogs +4.5

Arkansas is just 1–3 ATS this season, so they haven’t exactly been a darling of the spread. That said, the line’s behavior is intriguing: opening at +6.5, poking +7, then drifting all the way down to +4 before settling at +4.5. This hints at sharp money cutting into Notre Dame’s perceived edge. With Notre Dame’s offensive line and defense showing vulnerability combined with Arkansas’ impressive offensive displays thus far, this is a spot where the home dog may be getting more credit from books than their recent history would suggest.

Pick: Woo Pig +4.5 (-110) Caesar’s — 2 units

Ohio State at Washington — Over 51.5

This total has oscillated like crazy: opened at 48.5, popped to 53.5, dropped back down, flirted with 52.5 and finally resting at 51.5. That kind of chop usually signals models and books dancing with bettors to find a consensus. Washington has been generous to offenses (28+ points allowed in three of four games) but can put up points themselves, even against the Buckeye’s nation-leading scoring defense. OSU has the firepower and tempo to exploit holes if the Huskies’ defense breaks, which is all but guaranteed to happen — they play man on 63.8% of snaps, something Buckeye WR’s will be looking forward to. With both sides trending toward shootouts and the market pushing early toward the over (and since fallen), we want in on this one.

Pick: Over 51.5 (-115) DraftKings — 2 units

Virginia Tech at North Carolina State — Hokies +10.5

VT recently got rid of their head coach after an absolutely abysmal start to the season. In comes Philip Montgomery, and the team showed positive flashes in response, indicating a potential much-needed spark. The Hokies will be without some key defenders, but with the vulnerabilities NC State has shown, I suspect VT will be able to keep up (with some defensive surprises to help). The line opened +7.5 and floated up to +10.5 after some of the injury news and has stayed there. +10.5 gives us some nice cushion, when we really won’t need it, as VT keeps the Pack at a touchdown’s distance.

Pick: Virginia Tech +10.5 — 1 unit

Let’s look to flip into the positive this weekend and never look back. Get your graters out and we’ll see you at the window.

Summary:

• (Friday) Virginia +7 (-110) — 1 unit, Caesar’s

• Arkansas +4.5 (-110) — 2 units, Caesar’s

• Ohio State vs Washington o51.5 (-115) — 2 units, DraftKings

• Virginia Tech +10.5 (-105) — 1 unit, FanDuel

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Hand up, guys. Last week was poor from the Rainman. The fruit of the crop was tainted by lack of sustenance and rain. We did give you CLV on both Nebraska and quite a bit on Charlotte. Unfortunately, neither result came through. We got crushed on the early Army idea—ironically, they nearly pulled off the comeback. These sorts of trends will happen from time to time.

The key now is to get very selective and get back to form—seeing the ball clearly again. I’ve got a couple of ideas.

The Play: Ole Miss -1.5
You can still find the moneyline in certain places at -130 or better. Kalshi is still trading around -108 if you can get your action there. LSU’s body of work becomes significantly less impressive after the starts from Florida and Clemson. We show tremendous value in this game. We think Ole Miss should be favored by over a touchdown—we think 4 or 5 points would be completely fair. We wanted to jump on this before it moves over a field goal.

The Play: Pittsburgh +3.5 vs Louisville
We essentially think this game should be a pick ’em—perhaps Louisville -1. We love getting the hook over a field goal here in a bounce-back spot. Louisville is performing well under market expectation, having yet to cover this year. However, it doesn’t seem like the market has fully adjusted its rating properly. We expect this to close under a field goal.

Let’s turn it around!

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Now that’s a bounce back! A solid Week 3 got us back on track — Kansas State being the only one who left us hanging. Georgia Tech might be the real deal, folks. I’m fully on board with the early Haynes King Heisman train. He was a beast last year and I’m glad he’s finally getting the respect he deserves. NC St. handled Wake, as expected and Delaware “Joe Flaccid is Indeed Elite” Blue Hens took out UConn outright. That’s what we like to see

However, in this business, you have to remind yourself that the past is the past and any given week can humble you…and humble hard. The goal here is to, of course, avoid that while continuing to find good value and tick up our bankroll. We have some sneaky good matchups this week — one we’ll touch on — but the value lies in those outside the primetime lens. With that said, let’s ride the wave into Week 4!

Iowa ML vs. Rutgers (Friday): -130

A trip to Piscataway is always a sneaky road test, but Iowa’s defense is downright stingy: top-3 nationally in total yards allowed, just ~10 points per game. Rutgers comes in with offensive line injuries and a passing game that hasn’t shown it can test secondaries like Iowa’s. The line has danced, opening at -115, spiking to -135, then dipping before settling near -130 after the injury news. That back-and-forth tells you the market’s still figuring it out, but with the slight steam in Iowa’s favor, we’re sold. Our numbers had this closer to -4 in favor of the Hawkeyes even before the OL news. In a Friday grinder, trust the Hawkeye defense to travel and get it done outright.

Iowa -130 (DraftKings) — 2 units

Arkansas @ Memphis — Over 60.5

This total has been a rollercoaster: opened 58.5, rocketed to 63.5, and has settled back at 60.5. Arkansas just put up 526 yards in a loss to Ole Miss, and Memphis has the firepower to force the pace on their home turf. Neither defense has consistently shown it can stop explosive plays, and the market movement shows bettors expect fireworks. With both teams built to trade haymakers, and our numbers showing this to be closer to 70 (!!!), we’re riding the Over in a shootout on Beale Street.

Over 60.5 -110 (DraftKings) — 2 units

Illinois +6.5 @ Indiana

Illinois is 3-0, outscoring opponents 135-22. Efficient on offense, stingy on defense — it’s been clean football so far. Indiana is also unbeaten, but they just lost top rusher Lee Beebe Jr. for the season, and that’s a major blow to their ground game. Yes, Illinois is without CB Xavier Scott, so Indiana’s passing attack might find a lane, but +6.5 gives us plenty of room. This is the kind of hard-nosed dog we like to back — one that plays tough, efficient football and forces a four-quarter fight.

Fighting Illini +6.5 -105 (DraftKings) — 1 unit

(+7 is available with some juice at BetRivers for those who have access)

Wyoming +13 @ Colorado

Colorado’s offense has sputtered: weak line play, rotating at QB, and unable to move the chains consistently, particularly on the ground. Wyoming hasn’t lit up the scoreboard, but their defense is legit, holding teams to ~12–13 points and showing toughness against the pass. Line movement tells the story from a different angle: opened +17.5, free-fell through the key +14, and has settled at +13. Public loves Colorado’s flash; sharps grabbed Wyoming early and continue to push the number back down quickly when it’s touched the key “14." The Cowboys aren’t built for highlight reels, but they drag games into the mud and make you earn every yard. If Colorado sputters on offense even a little, Wyoming has the cushion to cover.

Cowboys +13 -105 (Caesar’s) — 1 unit

Summary:

• Iowa ML — 2 units

• Arkansas vs. Memphis o60.5 — 2 units

• Illinois +6.5 — 1 unit

• Wyoming +13 — 1 unit

Let’s build on last week and continue the upward trend. Cheers, everyone! See you at the window.

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Rainman Maroochi brings you a couple of early NCAAF plays for Week 3. We expect these lines to be on the move, so the goal here is to lock in value before the market adjusts. These are strictly plays off of our early numbers.

Opening Lines vs. Rainman Maroochi Lines

• Charlotte +5.5 → Our Number: +3

• Army -1.5 → Our Number: -5

• Nebraska +2.5 → Our Number: -0.5

We recommend getting in early to secure Closing Line Value.

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Well, we went 2-2 last week. Kansas State’s shocking loss to Army (who lost to Tarleton the week before) stung, and Louisville vs. JMU was far more about defensive grit than offensive fireworks. No shame in either, but it’s a reminder: even the “sure things” can surprise. As you’ll notice, a bit of a shortened version this week, no less desire to cash some tickets.

Thursday:

NC State -7 (-110 Caesars) - 2 units

This one’s got revenge written all over it. Wake Forest hasn’t been able to string together consistent drives — top-5 nationally in explosive rush plays, but bottom-tier in sustaining them — which is how you end up sweating Kennesaw State (!!!) two weeks ago. NC State’s defense is giving up yards (421.5/game) but they stiffen in the red zone, and that’s the difference. The spread’s been seesawing between -7 and -7.5, with sharps grabbing every dip. That’s a market signal louder than the Carter-Finley crowd on a Thursday night. Wolfpack howl, Deacs backpedal.

Friday

Kansas State ML (-115 MGM) - 1 units

The public loves Arizona’s shiny 2-0 start, but Vegas hasn’t budged. K-State is still clinging to “favorite” status, and that’s telling. Arizona’s defense has been elite on paper (4.5 PPG allowed), but it came against lightweights. Kansas State is battle-tested, putting up 254 passing yards/game and holding opponents to just 176.7 through the air. Yes, the run game’s been thin (109 yards/game), but Avery Johnson’s legs give them a bailout button when it matters. K-State is 0-3 ATS, sure, but this isn’t about style points. It’s about gutting out a win. Ugly cats win road fights — it’s what they do.

Saturday

Georgia Tech +3.5 (-122 FanDuel) - 1 units

This is one where the offense and efficiency stats are flashing green. This line crashed from +7.5 to +3 because sharps saw what Clemson backers didn’t. Tech’s offense is humming: a ridiculous 571.5 total yards/game, led by ~300 passing yards/game and ~271.5 rushing yards/game, zero sacks. Brent Key’s group is balanced, nasty up front, and fearless with Haynes King healthy again. Clemson’s defense is still talented, but cracks have shown, and Tech’s style is built to pry them open. Buy the hook, if necessary (unless is goes north of -125). It won’t be pretty, but covers rarely are.Buy into the underdog energy when the line is soft but the offense is sharp.

Delaware +10 (-110 Caesars) - 2 units

This isn’t about pedigree, it’s about matchups…and Delaware’s got one. The Blue Hens are averaging nearly 292 passing yards/game (23rd nationally), exactly where UConn is weakest, coughing up 273 yards/game through the air (119th). Minicucci (distant cousin of ole Marooch) has already piled up 563 yards and multiple TDs. Against a Huskies secondary this leaky, the air raid travels.

Delaware’s run game is thin (110 ypg, bottom-25), but they won’t need it. Throw, throw, throw. Yes, UConn is putting up 39.5 points/game and converts nearly 49% on third downs, but Delaware’s offense can shorten the margin by keeping pace. Oddsmakers opened UConn at -10.5 and have already nudged Delaware toward +10 with sharper action nibbling the dog. FCS no more, this is a live double-digit pup at home — and it smells like value.

Last week was a reminder that even “sure things” can trip on their own shoelaces. But that’s the beauty of the grind — bounce-back spots, market edges, and dogs that don’t know they’re dogs. Four plays, four edges. Numbers in hand, value on the board. No overthinking. Graters at the ready! See you at the window.

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Well, Week 1 wasn’t the charcuterie board of winners we ordered… more like someone tossed us Kraft Singles on stale crackers and slid over the bill fit for a night at XS in Vegas. Auburn cashed Friday night, riding Jackson Arnold’s legs and an electric kickoff return. The rest? Let’s just say the cheese grater needs sharpening.

Arch Manning’s debut rivaled Bill Belichick’s for most underwhelming, Bama was introduced back to the land of us peasants, and LSU shook off its season-opening curse, snatching away any iota Clemson thought it had of claiming the “real” Death Valley.

The good news? It’s a long season. The Mendoza Line isn’t built in a day, nor sunk in a week. It’s built on spotting edges, trusting value, and laughing with the football gods when they’re clearly laughing at us.

Week 2 is here and the parmesan is back on the board. In the eyes of TV execs, this slate is kinda ass…but that’s where we do our worst. Let’s right the ship.

Friday: JMU at Louisville — over 55.5

Louisville comes in off a routine EKU tune-up, though the “routine” part hid 12 penalties, 3 turnovers, and a lot of sloppy football. Jeff Brohm’s squad is fast and explosive, but mistake-prone — the kind of cocktail that can fuel points on both sides. James Madison isn’t your average Group of Five guest, either; they just ran for 313 yards in their opener and bring back a healthy Alonza Barnett III, who posted 26 TDs to just 4 INTs before the ACL last year. Add in George Pettaway, the UNC transfer, in the backfield and you’ve got the Dukes capable of breaking big plays. Translation: both offenses have the juice to cook, and Louisville’s tendency to give the ball away keeps the oven on high.

The Line
Opened at 54.5, steamed all the way to 58.5, then settled back to 55.5. That rollercoaster says two things: 1) sharps immediately respected the over, 2) buyback and market correction creates value on the current number.

The Pick
Over 55.5. JMU has the firepower to test Louisville’s defense, and the Cards’ speed along with their penchant for sloppy mistakes only accelerates scoring chances. Expect a track meet with a couple of bonus possessions sprinkled in.

Saturday: Iowa at Iowa State — Iowa +3.5

The Cy-Hawk isn’t pretty, it’s primal. Six of the last 10 meetings have been one-score rock fights, and Iowa has owned the series 8–3 straight up since Matt Campbell took over in Ames. This year, the Hawkeyes finally have something resembling an offense: portal QB Mark Gronowski gives Kirk Ferentz a dual-threat who can actually move the chains, and the run game just churned out 310 yards in Week 1. Pair that with Phil Parker’s annual top-20 defense — stacked up front, disciplined at linebacker, and nasty in coverage — and you’ve got the right formula to drag Iowa State into the mud. The Cyclones lost their best wideouts and look shakier up front, meaning Rocco Becht may spend the afternoon ducking Iowa’s pressure. Ugly? Yes. Valuable? Absolutely.

The Line
Opened Iowa +2, briefly dipped to +1.5, but has steadily climbed to +3.5. That progression shows money moving toward Iowa State, yet we’re more than happy to grab the Hawkeyes with the key hook.

The Pick
Iowa +3.5. Rivalry games this tight make every half-point matter, and the hook is gold. Expect trench warfare, a final in the teens or low 20s, and Iowa hanging well inside the number.

Saturday: Western Kentucky at Toledo — Toledo -7

On paper, this looks like a clash of opposites: Toledo grinding after a tough 24–16 loss to Kentucky, and the Hilltoppers lighting up the scoreboard with 55 on North Alabama. But early-season box scores don’t always tell the full story.

Yes, WKU’s Maverick McIvor has thrown for 700+ yards and 8 TDs in two games, but those came against overmatched defenses. Now he faces a Toledo secondary that held Kentucky to just 85 passing yards and ranks top-15 nationally (albeit after one week and, yes, against Kentucky) against the pass. The Rockets’ defense is built to squeeze explosive offenses, and Jason Candle’s group has made a habit of dictating pace at the Glass Bowl.

Toledo’s offense still needs to clean up penalties and finish drives, but Tucker Gleason and Chip Trayanum have enough juice to stress a Hilltoppers defense that remains soft up front.

The Line
Opened Toledo -4.5, bet up to -7 and even -7.5 in spots. Sharp money showing clear respect for the Rockets despite WKU’s flashy early stats. Get 'em before it crosses above a TD.

The Pick:
Toledo -7. Western Kentucky’s fireworks fade against a defense with real teeth and the Rockets get back on track at home.

Saturday: Army at Kansas State — KSU -17

K-State dodged disaster last week against FCS North Dakota, needing a last-minute TD to avoid embarrassment. That scare sets the stage for a locked-in rebound here. Avery Johnson has been sharp (591 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs) and this roster still grades out far better than the early record. Army, fresh off a double-OT loss to Tarleton State, is walking into a buzzsaw in Manhattan. Army’s triple option always tests discipline, but the Black Knights look like a shell of last year’s 12–2 team. The Wildcats’ defense will see the option early, then adjust, and Avery Johnson should find plenty of room to operate against a Cadets squad that gave up chunk plays in Week 1. Motivation plus mismatch equals “cover city.”

Statistically, the matchup favors the Wildcats. Army runs it well (280 rushing ypg, 15th FBS) but ranks 112th in red zone offense (50%), while K-State’s defense sits 27th nationally in red zone efficiency (66.7%). Army is also 111th in rushing defense, allowing 280 yards per game, which is a problem against Johnson and the Wildcats’ physical line.

The Line
Opened Kansas State -16.5, dipped to -15.5 early, then was bet back up to -17/-17.5 depending on the book. Market showing resistance to Army despite the big number.

The Pick
Take Kansas State -17. After sleepwalking through two games, the Wildcats get right at home. Army can chew clock, but without efficiency in the red zone or balance through the air, K-State should pull away late. Last week was the wake-up call. This week is the statement

The Picks

• JMU vs. Louisville — Over 55.5

• Iowa +3.5 vs. Iowa State

• Toledo -7 vs. Western Kentucky

• Kansas State -17 vs. Army

Value hunting, parmesan dusting — see you at the window.

College football is BACK! For real, this time. In fact, it’s conducting a full-on hostile takeover of the airwaves for four days. Week 0 did its job in getting the whistles wet (shoutout Kansas for the W to kick us off). Now Week 1 is here, the full buffet, when everyone laces ‘em up, pops pads, and headbutts their strength coach. Boy, do we have some high-powered matchups in store this weekend. We were hoping to get some plays out today but, unfortunately, were not able to do so. Plenty more meat on the bone, however. Let’s get into it!

Friday Night: Auburn ML (-125) @ Baylor — 1 units

Auburn enters Year 2 under Hugh Freeze with plenty to like. The Tigers averaged 6.1 yards per play in SEC contests last season, third-best in the league, and return a defense that was fourth in the conference in yards allowed per play. Add in one of the country’s most improved WR rooms — Eric Singleton Jr., Cam Coleman, and Malcolm Simmons — and the pieces are there for a leap.

The wild card is Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold. His 2024 numbers were ugly (5.78 yards per attempt, 56% “dead-end throw rate”), but context matters: OU’s receivers were decimated by injuries, the O-line was a sieve, and the staff was in flux. Now he steps into Freeze’s QB-friendly system with far better support. Even if he’s not flawless, Auburn doesn’t need him to be.

Baylor isn’t a pushover, however. They finished 8–5 in 2024 and bring back experience. Spavital’s tempo-first offense hasn’t been stress-tested against many physical fronts, which should be exposed in this spot. Auburn’s defensive line, led by Marcus Harris and Keldric Faulk, should have the edge in disrupting rhythm. And the Bears’ defense, ranked 82nd in EPA/play last season and particularly vulnerable to explosives, looks like a rough matchup against Auburn’s rebuilt receiver corps.

The Pick: Auburn ML (-125, Caesar’s). Arnold may still be a work in progress, but the roster edge is real. Auburn should open 2025 with a statement - “War Eagle”

Saturday Feature: Texas +1.5 vs. Ohio State — 2 units

No. 1 vs. No. 3. The defending champs vs. the preseason darlings. The Horseshoe as the stage. Texas v. Ohio State is billed as the “biggest opener ever” and, for once, that’s not just hype.

The quarterback matchup is, of course, the headline. For Texas, it’s finally Arch Manning’s show, and the heir hasn’t shied away from the spotlight. He looked the part in relief of Quinn Ewers last fall, and with Sarkisian tailoring the offense around his quick release and mobility, expectations are as high as ever in Austin, and that’s saying something. Ohio State turns to Julian Sayin, the former No. 1 recruit who redshirted in 2024. Sayin has the tools, but Saturday will be his first real college snaps…against one of the most complete rosters in the nation.

That roster is the edge. Texas returns more proven starters, including a defensive front that held OSU phenom Jeremiah Smith to three yards in January’s semifinal. The Longhorns’ balance and depth, especially in the back seven, give them answers that even elite SEC offenses struggled to find last season. Ohio State still has top-end star power in Smith and Caleb Downs, but breaking in eight new defensive starters against a QB as polished as Manning is a dangerous equation.

And the market agrees. This line opened at Texas +3, but sharp money quickly pulled it down toward +1/1.5. With only about 30% of ML tickets on Texas, that’s clear reverse line movement, indicating that respected money is backing the Longhorns even as the public leans Buckeyes.

Winning in Columbus is never easy, but the expanded playoff makes this more about seeding than survival. Texas has the better quarterback, the steadier line play, and the defense that already proved it can frustrate Ryan Day’s system.

The Pick: Texas +1.5 (-110, MGM). Manning’s debut doubles as a Heisman campaign kickoff and the Horns plant their flag as the team to beat in 2025.

Saturday: Syracuse +14 vs. Tennessee — 1 units

Tennessee fans spent the offseason adjusting to life without Nico Iamaleava, who bolted for UCLA after a rollercoaster debut and a head-scratching, drama-filled departure (to put it kindly). Enter, stage-right, Joey Aguilar, the journeyman who threw an FBS-high 14 interceptions last year at Appalachian State before a brief stop at UCLA before landing in Knoxville. He’s experienced, but he’s volatile…and SEC defenses punish mistakes.

Syracuse turns to Notre Dame transfer Steve Angeli, who won the QB job this summer and brings steady leadership to Fran Brown’s first full season. The Orange won’t overwhelm anyone, but they return enough veteran production up front to hang around.

Fourteen points is a lot for an opener where Tennessee is breaking in a new QB with turnover baggage.

The Pick: Syracuse +14 (-110, MGM). The Vols may win, but the Orange are live to keep it within two scores.

Saturday: Alabama -13.5 vs. Florida State — 1 units

Kalen DeBoer enters Year 2 in Tuscaloosa under pressure after an uneven debut. But, compared to Florida State, the Tide look like a model of stability. Alabama’s offensive line and defensive front are intact, and another offseason in DeBoer’s system should only sharpen QB Ty Simpson and his stacked receiving core, led by Ryan Williams.

Florida State? A full reboot. The Seminoles started 2024 0-1, causing a fan to be socially pressured to fulfil a promise of eating shit, followed by a full collapse to 2–10, finishing bottom-5 nationally in virtually every offensive stat and forcing all FSU fans to figuratively consume shit with their eyes every week. Their new QB, Boston College transfer Thomas Castellanos, is shifty but unproven, and he’ll be playing behind a line and with receivers who just met. The defense is similarly patched together with transfers.

Covering two touchdowns would count as progress for FSU.

The Pick: Alabama -13.5 (-115 MGM). Bama steadies the ship, and even in “transition,” the Tide are still a different class.

Saturday: Clemson -3.5 vs. LSU — 1 units

LSU has lost its opener five years in a row, and Brian Kelly knows it. Since 2022, the Tigers are just 2–7 vs. ranked opponents, often folding after halftime. Garrett Nussmeier is good enough to flip that script, as shown last year along with the pre-season expectations in Baton Rouge of Heisman. Despite the firepower both returning and coming in through the portal, the rest of the roster is still inconsistent, especially on defense.

Clemson, meanwhile, looks ready to climb again. Making pulling teeth look easy, Dabo Swinney finally dipped into the portal for depth, and senior QB Cade Klubnik has evolved from beleaguered underclassman to polished leader. Add in pieces from a defense that ranked top-10 nationally last year along with 2 future draft picks and the Tigers feel more like their pre-pandemic selves.

Until LSU proves it can win an opener, the benefit of the doubt goes elsewhere.

The Pick: Clemson -3.5 (-110 Hard Rock). Klubnik and Clemson’s defense give Dabo his first big win in years and LSU’s Week 1 woes continue.

Value hunting, parmesan dusting — see you at the window.

Summary:

• Auburn ML (-125, Caesars)

• Texas +1.5 (-110, MGM)

• Syracuse +14 (-110, MGM)

• Alabama -13.5 (-110, MGM)

• Clemson -3.5 (-110, Hard Rock)

Welcome back College Football! Ohhhh how we’ve missed you, beautiful. Gone are the dog days of summer (thank you for carrying us through, Blue Horseshoe!), and so is MLB’s spotlight — ‘til October, that is (unless you’re a Reds or Mets fan…have fun with watching both of your teams try and clinch that first flight to Cancun rather than the last Wild Card spot).

I, Haddogiorno, am going to do my best to lead us all through a profitable gridiron season and add a little freshly grated parmesan on your bankroll; and I’m beyond thrilled y’all are here to join us. Let’s get into it, shall we?

Why Kansas?

Week 0 isn’t about overthinking. It’s about spotting the mismatches before the market catches up. Kansas returns one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the country in Jalon Daniels, who’s now surrounded by a versatile skill group and one of the deepest offensive lines in the Big 12. This is a unit that finished top-15 nationally in yards per play last season and brings back enough firepower to expect more of the same. With Daniels’ dual-threat ability and receivers who can stretch the field, the Jayhawks have balance, explosiveness, and stability — three things Fresno won’t have answers for in Week 0.

Why Not Fresno State?

Fresno State, meanwhile, enters with a first-year head coach, an unproven passing game, and only four defensive starters returning. Their 9 wins last season were propped up by a +10 turnover margin, arguably the most regression-prone stat on that side of the ball. Strip that away, and you’re left with a Mountain West roster that looks light in the trenches and thin on experience against a seasoned Big 12 squad in their own (brand new) back yard.

The Line

This spread opened at -14 back in the summer. It dipped as low as -12.5, as if many thought the old Big 12 punching bag still resided in Lawrence, and now sits at -13 at most books. That’s a discount buy, in my opinion, and I believe it’ll likely close back near the two tuddies it opened at. Fresno might hang around for a quarter, but over all four, Kansas’s experience and balance should pull away.

The Pick

Kansas -13 (At time of post, -12.5 available at FanDuel). Don’t overthink it. Lay it, trust the talent, and enjoy watching a Big 12 dark horse flex. The Jayhawks set the tone early for a program that truly believes it’s moved past being a punchline.

We wanted to get y’all an inaugural play as we approach Week 0, but there will be multiple plays each week! Write-ups will vary.

In the meantime, sharpen those cheese graters — see you on Saturday.

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