We’re backing the Texans this week, taking advantage of a sneaky good team coming off their bye. Meanwhile, Seattle is riding high after an impressive road win against Jacksonville — a great spot for them, but one we don’t expect to carry over.

Our numbers power-rate this game at Seattle -2, meaning we see real value in grabbing Houston at +3.5. Both teams have comparable health scores, but the Texans own the spot advantage here.

While the public will glance at Houston’s 2–3 record and underestimate them, we still grade the Texans as about two points better than an average team. This isn’t a knock on Seattle — who we also view as a quality team — but given the numbers and the situation, we’re more than happy to take the points with Houston.

Selection: Texans +3.5 (-115) against Caesars bookmakers to Win 2 units.

“In bocca al lupo.”

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We’ve got one early spot this week that we believe offers real value.

We rate the Steelers as a half point worse than an average team, while the Browns sit 4.5 points below average. With a 1.8-point home field advantage for Pittsburgh, that gives us a 5.8-point edge in favor of the Steelers.

The Browns fought hard in London but ultimately came up short against Minnesota. Even in a close game, the stat sheet showed the Vikings with a comfortable edge. For us, this is a downgrade spot for Cleveland given the intercontinental travel.

On the other side, the Steelers are no better than an average team, but they’re coming in off the bye week with both rest and travel advantages in their favor. That edge matters.

We’re comfortable making our number Steelers -6.75, which means grabbing Steelers -5 is an early value play.

Good luck this week!

Selection: Steelers -5.0 (-110) to Win 2 units.

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1. Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (O/U 36.0)

We made this game Vikings -6.0 and really like the spot for them as well. They played in Dublin overseas last week and have had an ample amount of time to get acclimated to the European environment and the players’ body clocks should be well in sync with the change in time zones versus the Browns who just arrived in London on Thursday. We believe this will give them a more significant edge in this spot than the market is discounting. Moreover, the Vikings sport a perfect 4-0 record in London and the coaching personnel has a lot of experience with the travel logistics and preparation. On the other hand, the Browns have only played in London once (which happened to be a 33-16 Loss to the Vikings in 2017). Despite the low total in this affair that suggests scoring will be at a premium, laying the points with the Vikes is the right play here.

Selection: Vikings -3.5 (-110) to Win 2 units.

2. Miami Dolphins (-1.5) vs. Carolina Panthers (O/U 45.5)

We made this game Panthers -1.5 so we will look to play them as slight home dawgs in this spot. They were boat raced last week by the Patriots and we believe that will provide them a motivational edge to bounce back at home. On the other hand, the Dolphins are coming off of a much needed win on Monday Night Football so they might show a little complacency and are at a rest disadvantage. Look towards the home dawg in this ugly matchup on paper.

Selection: Panthers ML (+100) to Win 1 unit.

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1. Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams (O/U 49.5)

We made this game Rams -2.5 and cannot get to -3 let alone give ‘em the hook with their weak home field. Admittedly the Colts aren’t an impressive 3-0 football team and that is factored into our power ratings only having them as 0.75 points better than an average team. By contrast, the Rams played a great game last week against the defending Super Bowl champs and we believe the public is overvaluing that performance. This is a classic example of fading the ‘eyeball test’ and trusting our numbers. Blue Horseshoe Loves the Colts +3.5.

Selection: Colts +3.5 (-105 against DraftKings bookmakers) to Win 2 units.

2. New Jersey Jettisons (+3.0) vs. Miami Dolphins (O/U 45.0)

We made this game Dolphins -2 and can’t get to the key number of 3 so despite how ugly of a Monday Night Football matchup this may be, it actually provides a pretty good betting opportunity. Embrace the shit-show, take the +3 with the Jets and be on the lookout for another Aaron Glenn sideline jigger.

Selection: Jets +3 (-115 widely available) to Win 1 unit.

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Last week’s suggestion was Broncos +3, a play that admittedly I loved. For most of the second half it looked like a winner. However, after taking a peek at Kevin Cole’s Unexpected Points, it was pretty clear the Chargers won the stat sheet. I couldn’t feel too wronged, despite it seeming like a winner. We’ll take the push and try some more early ideas this week.

The Play: Chiefs +3
The eyeball test will tell you these Chiefs don’t resemble previous versions of the team—and I would agree. I was sitting there last night thinking the same thing, actually. The NFL really is a game of trusting your numbers. We love buying Chiefs +3 before the Ravens play the Lions tonight. It’s hard to imagine Baltimore getting upgraded too much—we already make them +7 vs avg. We make the Chiefs +3.7 vs avg. The Ravens will be coming off Monday Night Football; the Chiefs have the rest advantage and 2 to 2.5 points of HFA at Arrowhead. Pending injuries or any major upgrades/downgrades, we would make this Ravens -1. That gives us a chance to buy the Chiefs in a great spot at +3.

Not moving (yet), but on the radar:

• Giants +6 — We make it Chargers -4.5. Chargers get a mild upgrade from Week 3, Giants a mild downgrade, but that’s offset by LAC traveling cross-country while the Giants get a second straight home game. The Giants could get a small boost if pressure mounts on Daboll to play rookie Jaxson Dart.

• Buccaneers +3 — All the Bucs have done is play close games. We make it Eagles -2, so +3 gives us a nice edge.

We’re waiting on those two, as I think they’ll be accessible—or better—closer to gametime.

Let’s keep trusting the numbers and grab Chiefs +3.

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1. Dallas Cowboys (-1.0) vs. Chicago Bears (O/U 50.5)

We made this game Bears -1.5 after adjusting for the spot and think this is a great opportunity to fade the public. The Cowboys followed up their impressive W1 performance against the defending Super Bowl champs with a walk-off victory late in overtime against the Giants. We think that game took some starch out of them not only physically, essentially playing an extra quarter of football, but also emotionally. We view this as a hangover spot for the Cowboys who will be fat & happy with their start to the season. On the other hand, the Bears find themselves in a precarious situation starting the season 0-2 and are in desperate need of a win. In our opinion the market is not properly pricing this motivational mismatch and we believe the Bears should be favored in this game. As shared by Josh Appelbaum- NFL teams that are 0-2 and are dogs in Week 3 have gone 37-17 ATS (69%) with a 32% ROI since 2017. Finally, according to DraftKings betslip data the ticket count on the Cowboys at -0.5 is 87% of all bets setting this game up for a public catastrophe. Blue Horseshoe Loves the Bears in this spot.

Selection: Bears ML (-105) to Win 2 units.

2. Arizona Cardinals (+3.0) vs. San Francisco 49ers (O/U 45.5)

We made this game 49ers -1.5 and love catching the key number of 3 here even if we have to pay 10 cents of additional vigorish to do so. The 49ers are once again plagued by injuries early in the season and their home field isn’t worth quite as much here with an easy travel spot for the Cardinals and familiarity with the San Fran track.

Selection: Cardinals +3 (-120) to Win 1 unit.

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Play: Denver Broncos +3 (-120 or better)
Key: Get the hook on 3. That’s the edge in this spot.

Pass (for now): Carolina Panthers

• Power ratings flashed value, but with injuries still sorting themselves out, there’s no need to fire early. Wait for cleaner reports.

Why Denver +3

• Power Number: We make this Chargers -1.5 on a neutral. At +3, Denver’s catching clear value.

• Home Field ≈ Minimal: Chargers’ home crowd doesn’t move our number much; L.A. offers limited true HFA.

• Schedule Spot: Chargers are off Monday Night Football rolling straight into a division game. Not ideal.

• Market/Perception: Hot start + Harbaugh/Herbert buzz invites public money on LAC. We’ll take the contrarian side at the key number.

Price & Execution:

• Target: +3 at -120 or better.

• Do not play +2.5; if +3 disappears, consider waiting for buyback or look to re-enter live.

Unit Guidance: Standard 1u at +3 (scales down if price drifts past -125).

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Rainman Maroochi Special – Week 2

Last week, we were on Seattle. It didn’t feel like a tough beat, but with all the good fortune in the game, it was still disappointing not to get across the finish line. We move on to Week 2.

This slate doesn’t look nearly as strong to me as Week 1, but there’s one number worth playing.

The Cowboys have received a big overreaction from their Week 1 performance. Dallas does have a slight rest advantage coming off Thursday Night Football, but I don’t weigh that very heavily this early in the season. Later in the year, I’d value it more—especially compared to a team coming off a Monday night.

On raw numbers, we’ve got Dallas 1.5 points worse than an average team and the Giants 4.5 points worse. Add in a 1.8-point home field edge and you land on Cowboys -4.8. But given the division familiarity, the home field gets partially neutralized, and when we apply that situational system (teams off a failed home cover in Week 1 now playing on the road against a Week 1 cover), the adjustment brings us back down to Cowboys -4.

With the market hanging +5.5 on the Giants, that was enough to make this a play. It’s ugly—but it’s the one.

Play: Giants +5.5

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1. 6-point Two-team Teaser @ (-125)

• Arizona Cardinals -0.5 vs. Carolina Panthers

• Kansas City Chiefs +7.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

This is a good spot to try our first ‘Wong’ Teaser of the NFL season. The Cardinals look to take care of business at home against a bad Panthers team and we’re catching some additional value here with the teaser leg versus the implied ML. For our second leg, we Love catching +7.5 with the Chiefs in a motivational spot at home following their season opening loss. Now they return to Arrowhead and get a re-match against the team that smashed them in the Super Bowl last year. Look for this to be a tight one-score game either way.

Selection: 6-point Two-team Teaser with Cardinals -0.5 & Chiefs +7.5 (-125) to Win 1 unit.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) vs. Houston Texas (O/U 42.5)

We made this game Texans -3.5 after adjusting for the spot so we’re more than happy to lay the -2.5 here. This is a pretty classic Week 2 situation with the Texans returning home after losing the season opener in LA. They will be highly motivated to avoid starting the season 0-2 hosting Monday Night Football and might catch the Bucs somewhat resting on their laurels after they were able to scrap out a W1 victory against the Falcons.

Selection: Texans -2.5 (-110) to Win 1 unit.

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1. Buffalo Bills (-7.0) vs. New Jersey Jettisons (O/U 45.5)

Our proprietary NFL Power Ratings make this game Bills -5.5 after adjusting for the spot and we think the early steam in the market on the Jets is sharp. We upgraded the Jets in our power rankings following their impressive performance, albeit in defeat, against the Steelers on Sunday. Look for them to be fully focused at home with the perennial division leader coming into East Rutherford. On the other hand, the Bills are coming off of an emotional come from behind victory against the Ravens on Sunday night that might provide a good short-term sell high spot.

Selection: Jets +7.0 (-110) to Win 1 unit.

2. New England Patriots (+1.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (O/U 44.5)

We made this game Dolphins -3 after adjusting for the spot so we have to go to the windows here with both fists despite how much of a dumpster fire they looked like in their blowout loss to the Colts. We view the embarrassing Week 1 loss and rumored locker room issues as good narratives to fade here. The public loves overreacting to both and the fact is the Dolphins are now extra motivated coming back home to an advantageous home field given the weather conditions, where the Dolphins sideline will enjoy the shade as the Patriots will be baking in ‘feels like’ temps of approximately 95 degrees.

Selection: Dolphins -1.5 (-110) to Win 2 units.

Game: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Rainman Maroochi presents you with a golden opportunity to align with the smart money rather than fall into the public narrative.

The public has leaned heavily toward San Francisco in this spot, with 65% of tickets and 74% of money at DraftKings backing the 49ers. That’s no surprise coming off last season’s injury-plagued campaign and the high expectations for a bounce back this year. While I’m bullish on the 49ers long-term, I don’t believe they’ll be fully firing to open Week 1.

The market is quietly showing its hand. We’ve seen reverse line movement, with the spread ticking from Seahawks +2.5 down to +1.5, despite the majority of money on San Francisco. That aligns closely with our own power ratings, which had the 49ers as just 1.4-point favorites before factoring in injuries.

And injuries matter here. According to our trusted partners at SIC Score, this game features the largest injury discrepancy of any Week 1 matchup. Adjusting for that, plus a conservative 1.75-point home field edge for Seattle (which could fairly be argued closer to 2 or even 2.25), we arrive at this game being effectively a pick’em.

Even sharper, Circa Sportsbook has adjusted its board from 49ers -2 down to -1, further confirming where the respected action is flowing.

The Pick: Seattle Seahawks +2 (-110).

Well football season is finally in full swing y’all! With providing the NCAAF analysis, I’ll be handling the NFL handicapping in conjunction with working diligently in the background on our proprietary NFL Power Ratings. To recap my previous Week 1 Early Selections, we are already locked into Chargers +3.5 (-115) and Ravens ML (+100).

So y’all know what to expect on a weekly basis- we will typically have an early release on Monday where we can take advantage of soft opening lines that haven’t been sharpened out yet by the market movers. As individual bettors, this is our distinct advantage as the sophisticated betting syndicates cannot attack the low limits that are imposed early in the betting cycle. The majority of our plays will come from these early releases- so be on the lookout! We will have an additional later release(s) which will vary from Thursday to as late as Sunday morning- so make sure you are subscribed to receive emails and push notifications when they are released.

Good luck this football season. Remember to size your bets properly and always stay within your limits- earn the right to bet more. Now let’s have some fun and cash some tickets. Without further ado, here’s our late release plays for Week 1:

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.0) vs. New Jersey Jettisons (O/U 38.5)

After adjusting our power ratings for the spot, we made this game approximately Steelers -2. Although 1 point in an NFL game might not sound like a lot, even with a juiced 3, there is a really nice edge on this bet. We believe the public is clamoring to a perceived “Rodgers Revenge” factor and that is providing us a great opportunity to fade this narrative and catch the key number of 3, especially in a projected low-scoring affair, even if we have to lay a little extra juice. Hold your nose here, fade the washed-up gunslinger and take the points with these New Jersey Jettisons.

Selection: Jets +3.0 (-120) to Win 2 units.

1. Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (O/U 46.5)

Our proprietary NFL Power Ratings have the Chiefs as only 2.75 points better than the Chargers on a neutral site (which this game is). So that already makes the Chargers super appealing in this spot catching not only the key number of 3 but also the hook! Furthermore, we have a significant spot downgrade on the Chiefs in this situation because the Super Bowl Loser often underperforms early in the following season.

Selection: Chargers +3.5 (-115) to Win 2 units.

2. Baltimore Ravens (+1.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (O/U 52.5)

Our model has the Ravens as slight favorites in this game and we really like the spot for them as well which gets us over the top here for a play. The Ravens have had the bad taste of their playoff loss to the Bills in their mouth all off-season long and we think that gives them a big motivational edge here- we believe they’re better than a coin flip to win this Sunday Night Football opener in Buffalo.

Selection: Ravens ML (+100) to Win 1 unit.