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Is Naomi Osaka a Contender to Win the US Open?

I sit here watching a completely rejuvenated Naomi Osaka — focused, composed, and confident. She just cruised into the Round of 16 after dismantling Jelena Ostapenko in straight sets. Now, let’s be honest — Ostapenko isn’t exactly a force to be reckoned with right now. But yesterday’s gritty three-set win over Liudmila Samsonova? That was real. That was impressive.

As of now, Tennis Abstract has Osaka ranked as the 49th-best player in the world, and when ad-justing for just hard court performance, she rises to 27th. So, is the US Open a realistic target? Can she truly contend for a title this soon?

On paper, the 2025 resume doesn!t scream "slam-ready.” Her lone title came on the clay in April at the Saint-Malo 125. A solid result — but not one that moves betting markets. Since then, she!s picked up losses to Peyton Stearns, Paula Badosa, Emma Navarro, and Emma Raducanu — all on clay or grass. Those results aren!t damning, but they don't exactly inspire slam-winning confidence either.

Still, watching her right now… you start to wonder.

The eye test tells a different story. The serve — always the centerpiece of her game — remains a weapon. But it!s the movement that catches your attention. She!s defending at a high level, slid-ing and recovering with ease, and covering the court like the Osaka of old. On slower surfaces, players like Navarro have exploited her by forcing her side to side. But on these hard courts, she looks balanced, fluid, and most importantly — comfortable.

She!s pounding her leg in anticipation of serves, flashing that signature intensity. There!s a certain fire that!s hard to quantify, but impossible to ignore. You feel it. She feels it.

Of course, from a betting perspective, the name "Naomi Osaka" always comes at a premium. The four-time Grand Slam champion brings brand recognition, narrative juice, and media momentum. But that doesn’t mean she’s overpriced if she’s truly rounding into form. And right now, the form looks real.

There!s a long way to go — and the draw will get tougher — but if you!re a believer in momentum, in energy, in confidence... Osaka is starting to look like a real threat again.

A month from now, she could be holding another US Open trophy. Or not. But for the first time in a while, it genuinely feels possible.

We’ll see.