Having boots on the ground at Bethpage for the Ryder Cup was an all-time experience. I got to go with my wife, and we had an amazing time taking in the atmosphere. Our only day on the grounds was Sunday — and even though Team USA was already deep in a hole, we were full of excitement just to be there.

We never really felt like the U.S. had a shot to come back. That said, we did get to see Cameron Young, Justin Thomas, and Scottie Scheffler win their singles matches on 18, which was awesome. Still, with so many people packed onto the property, getting a good view of actual golf shots was tough — you’re often watching reactions or relying on big screens.

The Result: A Flat Performance from the U.S.

Let’s just call it what it was: a poor showing. Losing the Ryder Cup isn’t the end of the world, but being out of contention before Sunday is what makes it so frustrating. Europe only took one match in Sunday singles — one — and still won the Cup by three points. How is that even possible?

If I had told you on Thursday that Europe would only take one singles match, you’d assume Team USA was in great shape. But no — they got blown off the course in the team formats, especially early. The opening foursomes scores were brutal: 5&4, 5&3, 4&3. What are we doing?

Roster & Strategy: Keegan’s Plan and its Pitfalls

Heading into Friday, I actually liked what Keegan Bradley was trying to do. He leaned into our distance advantage by cutting the grass way down. But then the rain hit, the greens softened, and with no wind, Bethpage became extremely gettable — for everyone. There was nothing left to protect the course.

I didn’t mind the matchups early, and honestly, I thought he picked the right team overall. But once things went sideways on Day 1, I fully expected adjustments. Instead, we got more of the same. Running Collin Morikawa and Harris English back out on Day 2 felt like stubbornness. I understand wanting to stick to a game plan — but in match play, you have to be willing to pivot fast.

As for roster construction, Russell Henley was a weak spot, and I don’t think Morikawa or English should have been on the team. But beyond that, this really wasn’t about the wrong personnel. It was a failure in preparation and strategy — and maybe something deeper.

The Intangibles: What’s Missing in the USA Team?

I’m a data guy. I believe in analytics, expected value, strokes gained — all of it. But this Ryder Cup left me questioning how predictive skill set really is in this format. On paper, the U.S. had statistical edges in almost every key category. But on the course? It didn’t matter.

There’s something the European team has that the Americans just don’t. Call it camaraderie, brotherhood, passion — whatever. It matters. Watching guys like Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose, Shane Lowry, and Viktor Hovland… they wanted it. And they looked like they were having the time of their lives chasing it together.

If you had to choose a team to have a beer with, who would you pick? Lowry, Hatton, Fleetwood, Bobby Mac? Or Cantlay, Henley, Morikawa, English, and Sam Burns? It’s a weird way to think about team chemistry, but I think it says something. Europe’s guys seem to genuinely enjoy playing with and for each other. Team USA? It feels like a group of solo contractors showing up for a group project.

Looking Ahead to 2027

I won’t throw Bradley under the bus. He picked the team most of us would’ve picked, minus maybe Morikawa. And he made bold course setup choices to give us an edge. But when things went south, he didn’t adapt quickly enough. That’s on him — and on the players who didn’t show up.

My real fear is that this generation of American golfers simply doesn’t have the fire to win this thing on foreign soil. Europe will be even stronger in Ireland in 2027. The challenge only gets steeper. If we don’t bring in new blood — players with hunger, personality, and a team-first mindset — it’s hard to see the result changing.

And until we figure out how to win as a team, we’ll keep racking up stats and trophies as individuals… and getting worked at the Ryder Cup.

Maroochi out.

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Rainman Maroochi here — apologies for my silence on this year’s Ryder Cup. That ends now.

We’ll have boots on the ground in Long Island as we witness Keegan Bradley’s first rendition of a United States golf team. I’ll be traveling to New York on Sunday to see firsthand how we stack up against Luke Donald’s European squad.

Let’s be honest: the Europeans have a knack for this event. They’ve taken a data-driven approach to the Ryder Cup in recent years, optimizing pairings and team chemistry with precision. Meanwhile, the U.S. has too often treated the event like a high school lunch table — pairing “besties” and hoping it works out.

That middle school girls–clubhouse mentality — which I’ll politely call “The Boys Club” — produced the embarrassing result we saw in Italy. A complete battering. Scottie Scheffler in tears, and Zach Johnson’s reputation left in tatters. Gutless, truly.

Enter: Keegan Bradley

That won’t be the case this year.

I’m significantly higher on Keegan Bradley than the market. He’s ticking all the boxes: leadership, charisma, passion, and most importantly, a data-driven approach. I’m hearing about innovative pairing concepts that make real golf sense — actual complementary skill sets rather than buddy pairings.

In Rome, it felt like the U.S. had lost the tournament before I even had my coffee. Down 4–0 before breakfast. That can’t happen again.

Macro View: Bethpage Black

Let’s talk macroeconomics. This is a big-boy golf course, and we need to set it up to benefit our strengths:

• Minimize missed fairway penalty

• Speed up the greens — slow greens in Europe mess with our tempo; let’s reverse it and make them uncomfortable

• Lean into raw power — Bethpage is heavily correlated with driving distance over accuracy

This favors the U.S. core: Bryson, Cam Young, Xander, JT, Cantlay, Sam Burns, and of course, Scottie Scheffler. These guys bring brute force the middle tier of Europe simply can’t match.

Players like Justin Rose, Fitzpatrick, Lowry, Straka, Fleetwood — they benefit from tight setups with harsh rough and penal golf. We don’t want that. We want bombs away. Big misses, short irons. Even from the rough, our guys can hold greens with short clubs.

DataGolf Snapshot

According to DataGolf, the biggest projected skill-set edge in this Ryder Cup is Off the Tee:

🇺🇸 +0.12 strokes per player per round vs 🇪🇺
Approach: +0.07
Around the Green: +0.05
Putting: +0.07

Off-the-tee is where we win this — let’s set up the course to exploit it.

If this were a stroke-play event, Bryson DeChambeau would be my favorite. But in match play, you need putters — and we’ve got a sneaky-good combo in Cam Young, Sam Burns, Ben Griffin, and yes, even Scottie, who’s quietly found some form with the flatstick.

Final Thoughts:

I’m not going to recommend specific matchups — match play isn’t my thing — but I will lay down some macro thoughts to guide your bets:

• The U.S. must start fast.

  ◦ They got boat-raced in Italy.
  ◦ The crowd will be electric at Bethpage.
  ◦ USA to win Day 1 is a very strong look.

• I do not expect a blowout. The European team is formidable, smart, and well-led. They will not go down without a fight.

That said, I believe Team USA will win. It’s going to be tight, with some nervous moments, but the tools are there. If Keegan brings the right energy and leans into our core strengths — distance and putting — we can get it done.

Enjoy the golf this weekend, and good luck with your plays.

— Rainman

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Scottie Scheffler can do it all. He’s dismantling any argument you could possibly throw against him, and his win at Caves Valley only reinforced that. Even with the victory, you have to upgrade this performance on course fit—it wasn’t just dominance, it was dominance on a track that required the full arsenal.

I got a lot wrong last week. Xander was awful. Gotterup was awful. Sam Burns played well, and the winning score came in well under expectation. That was a pleasant surprise, as Caves Valley showed some teeth with its ability to play fast and firm, with undulating greens that demanded precision.

The one victory lap I’ll take is the driver–putter narrative. The course rewarded players who could hit it long and roll putts. You saw that reflected in guys like Bobby Mac, Sam Burns, and Maverick McNealy rising up the board. If I had been a touch sharper, I probably could’ve landed on the other two as well.

But the story begins and ends with Scottie. He was far and away the best player on a course where you simply needed to hit it far and make putts. That combination carried him once again.

Now the field is trimmed to 30, and we move on to East Lake for the Tour Championship. This is a course we know plenty about, even with the recent renovations, and it will provide a very different test to close out the season.

📍 East Lake Golf Club – Course Details

• Location: Atlanta, Georgia

• Architect: Originally Tom Bendelow (1904), redesigned by Donald Ross (1913). Most recent renovation/restoration by Andrew Green (2023–2024).

• Par: 71

• Yardage: ~7,455 yards

Surface:

• Greens: TifEagle Bermuda

• Fairways: Zorro Zoysia

• Rough: Bermuda

Notable Renovation Features (2023–2024):

• Restored Donald Ross features from 1949 aerial imagery

• 14th hole converted back to a downhill par-5 (previously par-4)

• 17th hole restored split fairway with trench bunker

• 9th green lowered and shifted left, bringing water into play

• Expanded runoffs and sharper-edged bunkers◦

• Tree removal for wider sightlines and improved turf health

• New irrigation + ~110 acres of new sod

Tour Championship – Format & Course Preview

This year, the Tour Championship shifts away from starting strokes and back to pure stroke play. Certainly not the most fair way to crown a season-long champion, but it will make things much more interesting. Had Scottie Scheffler begun at -10 like in years past, it’s hard to imagine anyone catching him in his current form. With $25 million on the line, you can’t help but feel for Scottie—despite a year of dominance, he won’t have the cushion he’s earned. All 30 players start at even par, and in this setup, ratings and viewership clearly prevailed over competitive equity.

As always, the finale returns to East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, a venue we’ve seen plenty of over the years. But this isn’t the same East Lake we were used to. The recent Andrew Green restoration brought the course back toward Donald Ross’s original intent. I really like this golf course—it has character, demands precision, and now punishes mistakes in a way that feels fitting for a season-ending championship.

The agronomy is classic Atlanta: zoysia fairways, bermuda rough, and TifEagle bermuda greens. Last year’s debut of the renovation showed just how penal the bermuda rough can be. Missed fairways carried a significant penalty: you can’t spin the ball out of it, distance control is unpredictable, and lies can vary wildly—sometimes jumping, sometimes coming out dead. Combine that with small, undulating greens, and you get a course that demands discipline.

East Lake will play as a par 71 at ~7,455 yards this week. I’ll be looking for players with great total driving ability—ideally above average in distance but significantly above average in accuracy. Iron play, especially with mid-irons, will be critical. Around the greens, I don’t necessarily need elite scrambling, but I do want players comfortable on bermuda. And finally, putting—particularly lag putting on undulating surfaces—will be a separator.

For comp courses, I’ll be drawing on tracks with similar style and agronomy: Harbour Town, TPC Sawgrass, TPC Scottsdale, Innisbrook Copperhead, and Sedgefield. Each of these asks for precision off the tee, rewards great iron play, and punishes misses in ways similar to East Lake.

Your Winner (Not Named Scottie Scheffler): Russell Henley

I’m going back to the well here with Russell Henley, and I’d love to see him cap off his year with a strong finish. He’s been consistent all season, quietly piling up quality results. His one limitation—lack of elite distance off the tee—doesn’t concern me as much at East Lake.

What Henley does bring is exactly what this course demands: elite driving accuracy, world-class iron play, a sharp short game, and reliable putting. Add in the fact that he’s a Georgia Bulldog, perfectly comfortable in this part of the country, and the fit looks even stronger.

Henley has played well here before and showed plenty of game last year. I think he has the tools to win this golf tournament. Okay—maybe he doesn’t take down Scheffler, but I fully expect him to be in the mix deep into Sunday.

Good luck!

We’ve just wrapped up the first round of the PGA Tour’s season-long playoffs, and the St. Jude is one I’ll gladly forget. I’m not a big Justin Rose fan, but his rally down the stretch was impressive — a bold statement in a pressure moment. Unfortunately, it seems he’s got that “it” factor our boy Tommy Lad just doesn’t have.

To be fair, Tommy never truly looked like a winner until he rolled one in on 12, sparking a run of birdies that gave him a two-shot lead with four to play. The most disappointing moment for me came at the par-5 16th, where his third shot choice was baffling — opting to go high, only for the ball to roll off the green. In that spot, you’ve got to put it on the surface and leave yourself no worse than 10 feet for birdie. He nearly gave it away there, but managed to save par. Still, the momentum was gone.

I do believe he’s too talented not to win on the PGA Tour someday, but boy, it’s tough to watch. His optimism and positivity make him impossible to dislike, but the killer instinct is clearly missing from his repertoire. One day, Tommy Lad… one day.

Anyways, we move on — 50 players remain, and now we head to a course that couldn’t be more different from TPC Southwind. Caves Valley will challenge distance rather than accuracy, minimize the importance of iron play, and reward a driver-putter combo. We have minimal data here — its only notable PGA Tour event was in 2021, when Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau went toe-to-toe, setting scoring records at 27-under. Fairways are wide, rough is not especially penal, and with multiple par-5s and drivable par-4s, this week is all about going low.

Yes, the course has seen renovations since 2021, and I’m sure some will argue it’ll play differently. I doubt it. Let’s dive in.

Here are the key course details for Caves Valley Golf Club:

Location: Owings Mills, Maryland, USA

Designer: Tom Fazio (opened 1991)

Par: 71

Yardage: ~7,542 yards (2021 setup; could vary slightly post-renovations)

Greens: Bentgrass

Fairways: Bentgrass

Rough: Ryegrass & Fescue mix (moderately penal, but not overly thick in 2021)

Notable Features:

• Wide fairways encouraging aggressive driving

• Minimal missed fairway penalty (2021 data suggested distance > accuracy)

• Multiple risk/reward holes, including drivable par 4s (e.g., No. 4, No. 12)

• Four par 5s (above Tour average)

• Rolling terrain with elevation changes

• Greens tend to be large and receptive, but with plenty of contour

Water Hazards: Comes into play on 4 holes

2021 BMW Championship Winning Score: Patrick Cantlay, -27 (playoff over Bryson DeChambeau)

In 2021, Bryson DeChambeau and Patrick Cantlay went head-to-head in one of the most entertaining duels of the year. It was back and forth all weekend, and the scoring pace made for a fascinating watch. The BMW Championship doesn’t really have a set identity — in 2020 at Olympia Fields, Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm battled to a winning score of just 4-under. Contrast that with 2021 at Caves Valley, where Cantlay shot the lights out at 27-under, delivering one of the greatest putting performances in PGA Tour history — gaining nearly four strokes per day with the flat stick.

We do need to be careful not to overreact to a limited sample size. That said, it’s tough to argue against Caves Valley being a driver-putter type of golf course. DataGolf’s course fit model shows one of the strongest correlations between driving distance and success that we’ve seen on Tour, and the 2021 leaderboard backed it up. The top 10 featured many of the game’s longer hitters — DeChambeau, Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Sam Burns, and Erik van Rooyen. A couple of shorter hitters like Abraham Ancer and Sungjae Im also snuck in, but like Cantlay, they relied heavily on short game brilliance to keep pace.

With limited water hazards and a relatively harmless rough, it’s just very difficult to go backwards here. The renovations since 2021 have included tweaks to the bunkering and greens, but without meaningful missed-fairway penalties or major architectural changes, I don’t see the course playing dramatically differently this year. Maybe we get a winning score somewhere between -27 and -20, but I still expect a shootout.

Caves Valley reminds me of a couple of Tour stops we see regularly. First is Quail Hollow — a long course that rewards a strong driver-putter combo. Rory McIlroy has been dominant there, and it’s no surprise that Xander Schauffele has also thrived. The second is Valhalla, with its length, similar agronomy, and comparable scoring conditions.

With that framework in mind, let’s start targeting some names for the week.

With that information, we built out a model that prioritizes total driving — with a strong emphasis on distance over accuracy — and layers in wedge play, scrambling on comparable courses, success at comp tracks like Valhalla and Quail Hollow, Bentgrass putting, Par-5 scoring, short par-4 scoring, and birdie-or-better percentage.

Your Winner: Xander Schauffele (20-1). He’s performed well at this event in the past, but more importantly, he’s been brilliant on every course I think compares well to Caves Valley. His form is trending in the right direction. The biggest weakness this year has been his driving accuracy — but here, it’s bombs away. Get a wedge in hand, even from the rough, get hot around the greens, and I think he wins this week.

I also think this is a great spot for Rory McIlroy (8-1). This is the type of course that best suits his game. The question is whether he can score enough to truly be competitive — we’ll see. The challenge with Rory is that if we back him, it may need to be a single-bullet situation or paired only with a select few others.

Some other names I really like:

Chris Gotterup (40-1) – Put some respect on this guy’s name. He’s been one of the best players in the world over the past two months and might end up being one of the top players on the planet in this style of golf. He absolutely smokes it off the tee and has been rolling the rock with the best of them.

Sam Burns (45-1) – Bound for a win, and the kind of guy who can make birdies in bunches. Continues to be one of the best, if not the best, putters in the world. He’s been in the mix a few times this year, but his history suggests that when he spikes, he wins.

Full disclosure — this is not one of my favorite events. I’m sure the golf course is beautiful, and it could very well make for a compelling weekend, but I’m not expecting it to truly challenge the best players in the world. For that reason, I wouldn’t recommend getting overextended.

It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if we got a weird result here. It also wouldn’t surprise me if Scottie wins by 10. So, the plan is simple: stick to the guys that make the most sense, take our swings, and give it the ole college try.

Rainman Maroochi has cooked up an interesting strategy for this week’s card at the St. Jude FedEx Championship. But first, a confession. For those of you reading closely, you may have noticed an oversight in the course preview. Slipping through Rainman’s usually airtight prep was a key detail: TPC Southwind has transitioned from Champion Bermuda to TifEagle Bermuda greens. Translation? We’re now dealing with an overseeded putting surface.

That mistake? Fully owned. And with it, Rainman’s own argument against Scottie Scheffler's dominance fell apart. So—what now?

We pivot. Same players, new strategy. This week, we attack the “Without Scheffler” markets and ladder-style bets to extract value without betting directly into the buzzsaw that is Scottie.

🎯 The Card:

• Russell Henley (30-1) – Our top pick. We’re playing him in the "without the favorites" market where we’ve identified really good value. For instance, the Circa bookmakers who we hold in high regard have him listed at +1750 outright! Henley fits everything we’re looking for—form, fit, and value.

• Daniel Berger (50-1) – Same treatment as Henley. He’s a course horse, with great past results here. Like him in the "without" markets with a small outright push.

• Tommy Fleetwood (25-1) – Targeted specifically in the "without Scottie Scheffler" market. We’ll throw a little on the outright as well, but the hedge play is the angle here.

• Viktor Hovland (30-1) – The one boom-or-bust bullet. No hedge, no safety net. Just a pure out-right swing on the volatility play of the week.

Recommended Plays:

Russell Henley: 1 unit on ‘Winner Without Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas & Scottie Scheffler’ at 20-1 versus the DraftKings bookmakers

Daniel Berger: 0.3 units on ‘Winner Without Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas & Scottie Scheffler’ at 30-1 versus the DraftKings bookmakers

Tommy Fleetwood: 0.5 units on ‘Winner Without Scottie Scheffler’ at 18-1

Victor Hovland: 0.3 units to Win Outright at 35-1

Professional golf is a weird space and sport at times. Part of the reason Tiger Woods was able to captivate the public the way he did was because he could do things no one else could. But more than that, it was his ability to do it consistently, year after year, that was truly remarkable.

Scottie Scheffler is now the model of that kind of consistency. It seems like there isn’t a golf course in the world that can really take him out of his game. Rory fits that mold to some degree, but even he went 10 years without winning a major. Same with Jordan Spieth—who looked like he was primed to take over the sport—only to lose his form and, realistically, never get it back. At this point, expecting another Spieth major isn’t even a hot take—it’s just unlikely.

Before we dive in, it’s worth acknowledging that the season isn’t officially over. We still have the FedEx Cup Playoffs ahead, and the Fall Season that follows — both of which offer players a real chance to shift their trajectory. A strong finish could absolutely change the narrative for some of these guys.

That said, for most casual golf fans, the season effectively ends with The Open Championship. Even among more serious fans, attention tends to fade after that final major. Only the most locked-in golf followers will stay engaged through the remainder of the year. The majority won’t tune back in until sometime between Kapalua and The Players Championship. The real accomplishments that the top players will want to target, won’t present themselves again until 2026.

In this article, we’re going to take a look at some of the other names who, as recently as last year, were regularly found at the top of odds boards and leaderboards—and who are now struggling. Who’s likely to bounce back in 2026? And who has legitimate concerns to be worried about?

Let’s dive in.

The immediate names that come to mind: Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, Tom Kim, and Sahith Theegala. For the purpose of this article, we’re going to stick to the PGA Tour guys. But I know some of you are probably wondering about the outlook of a few LIV players — Dustin Johnson, Cameron Smith, Brooks Koepka. Perhaps we’ll dive into that another time.

So let’s get into it: which of these guys are most likely to bounce back in 2026 — and who should we be genuinely worried about?

Patrick Cantlay

I mean, the guy is a total asshole. He’s got 9 PGA Tour wins, but his last came at the BMW Championship way back in 2022. My heart tells me to let go — to just stop believing — but my brain keeps whispering that a resurgence is coming.

Statistically, Cantlay in 2025 was actually better than I remembered. He was above average in every major category. He’s still an analytics darling, a tee-to-green machine, and one of the most complete players on Tour. But he just… finds a way to screw things up. You can feel it coming every time he’s in contention. It’s not one specific part of his game — it’s the whole package just unraveling at the worst possible time. Or, he completely takes himself out of the tournament at the very start, only to claw back to a respectable finish.

And on top of all that, he’s just deeply unlikeable. When was the last time you heard someone say they were a Patrick Cantlay fan? Exactly.

Still, if he can replicate this season statistically — and that's a big “if” — it feels inevitable he finds the winner’s circle again. I’m not saying we should expect a Patrick Cantlay major any time soon, but I do think he’s got another important win in him. Maybe that’s another Tour Championship. Maybe it’s one of the elevated events. Either way, he’s not done yet.

Collin Morikawa

I mean, good lord. I didn’t think Collin could do this much damage to his own reputation. I still think he’s widely respected out on Tour, and personally, I still view him in a relatively positive light. But the way he’s handled things this year — ducking the media, the rotating caddies — it’s starting to feel less like a golf issue and more like a personal one.

He gives off the impression that he sees himself as a world-class superstar. But the reality is, he won a couple of COVID majors. And look — that sucks to say, but those two just don’t feel as valuable as the rest. There was a stretch between last year and early this year where he paired his elite iron play with a solid short game and actually looked like a real contender again.

But it’s been years now without a win. And unless he gets back to being the best iron player in the world — or finds a way to consistently pair top-tier ball-striking with a decent short game — he’s going to keep falling short. The lack of distance is always going to be a limiter.

Sure, I think Collin will win again. He’s too talented not to. But if you’re asking me whether he’s going to win another major? Honestly… I don’t think so. And that’s kind of wild to say out loud — but at this point, it feels relatively likely.

Max Homa

Max Homa might be the best example of a true roller coaster career. When things are down, he looks like a legit Korn Ferry talent — he can’t gain with the irons and struggles to make a singlecut. But at his best, he’s conquering the world — winning the Genesis in front of Tiger, contending at the Masters, all behind elite iron play.

The thing about Max is, he’s got that “it” factor. Unfortunately, his career has been defined by the ups and downs. He’s talked about quitting golf, then turned it around to win and make the Ryder Cup team.

If Max can contend at the Masters with little form, what could he do if his swing change and caddie change actually click? Right now, it feels like a low-probability outcome. But on a mental level, I trust Max to get back on track more than I do some of these other guys. A return to the winner’s circle is completely possible.

Tom Kim

Tom Kim is one I was especially interested to talk about. He firmly fits into the young stars category — a winner and sensation early on, becoming the talk of the town during the Presidents Cup as a clear highlight for the international team.

In 2024, he gained strokes with his irons in a sample of 13 out of 15 appearances. In 2025, he lost with the irons in 10 straight events. To be honest, I’ve always had macro concerns about Tom. I thought his lack of distance off the tee would be a real deterrent at the highest levels. There’s always the chance he follows a Matt Fitzpatrick-type path — bulks up and elevates his game — but with his frame and athletic profile, I was skeptical.

For that reason, I always wondered if he might be more of a Rickie Fowler type — someone who racks up big moments, maybe wins a Players or two, but never quite claims a signature major.

At this point, I’m not sure what to expect. I trust the mindset and the desire to compete. I’d expect the driving accuracy and the wedge/mid-iron play to return. But long term? Where does that really leave him?

Sahith Theegala

This was the name I had circled for this article. I believe Sahith Theegala is destined for greatness. That’s why his 2025 campaign was such a disappointment — a real step backwards in his trajectory, but by no means a death sentence.

I still believe Theegala has the modern skill set that leads to long-term success. I’ve said this before to people close to me and I’ll keep saying it: Theegala is going to make a lot of money at Augusta National over the years.

At his best, his profile is ideal — solid driving distance (though often erratic), strong iron play including long irons, and an elite short game and putter. It’s rare to find a player with legit lengthand such a silky touch around the greens. Comparing him to Phil Mickelson might be a stretch, but the concept holds — not the longest hitter, but capable of gaining significant strokes with distance.

It’s no surprise that his name tends to pop up at the better events and tougher golf courses. The issue in 2025 was that most venues didn’t do much to separate skill sets. Nearly everyone has 300 yards in the bag these days. When there’s no penalty for missing fairways, tournaments turn into wedge and putting contests.

What separates good professionals from elite ones is the ability to hit long irons into firm, fast greens — and to scramble and create on those same challenging surfaces. That’s why Augusta National remains the best test of golf in the world. (And by the way, the most predictive course according to DataGolf.) Why? Because the skill set it demands is specific, and it takes luck out of the equation. It separates the good from the elite.

I digress. My hot take: Sahith Theegala will win the Masters at some point in his career. In 2026, it’ll be his 4th try on the golf course. An area where you start to see players turn the corner. By the seventh try, expect some noise. More immediately, I think he bounces back in a big way in 2026.

Honorable Mentions —

Tony Finau has been decent at best. He’s getting relatively consistent results — just consistently below the standard he’s set for himself. You wonder how much his personal life and the surrounding scandal have weighed on him.

Will Zalatoris has the injury excuse. His unique swing unfortunately put so much strain on his back. I really hope he gets back to peak form — his high-end long iron play is sensational.

Cameron Young is currently in the process of trying to get back to form. He very well may win Wyndham. But what a strange skill set and development. He’s gone from contending in majors with elite ball striking to now being more or less a driver-putter combo. As if a young Dustin Johnson developed into Wyndham Clark. It’s just been bizarre.

Viktor Hovland — 2025 is going to end up being okay after a disastrous start. He picked up a win and had a solid showing at the U.S. Open. The big question remains: how much will his short game hold him back? His irons have been excellent all year. If he can just become a neutral or slight positive around-the-green player, he gets back to winning — and doing it consistently.

Professional golf is always shifting. The climb to the top is brutal, and staying there might be even harder. For every Scheffler—who makes it look routine—there are a dozen world-class players searching for that one piece to click back into place. A better caddie fit, a minor swing adjustment, a return to confidence—sometimes that’s all it takes. And sometimes, it never comes.

For the players we covered, the talent has never been in question. But the margin between relevance and being forgotten is razor-thin on the PGA Tour. Some of these guys will bounce back. Some won’t. That’s the nature of the game.

As we shift our focus toward the FedEx Cup Playoffs, all eyes are on Cameron Young—currently holding a five-shot lead over Nico Echavarria heading into the final round in North Carolina. It's been a long time coming for Young, whose body of work has long merited a breakthrough win on the PGA Tour. And yet, he's always been the type of player I could never quite back in this spot.

The iron play has been stellar this week, no doubt. But up to this point in 2025, Young hadn't exactly been lighting it up. He's leaned more heavily into a driver-putter identity, but even that combo had lacked the firepower needed to close the deal. Still, should he get it done on Sunday, I’ll be genuinely happy for him. A little good fortune at the right time and he could already be a major champion. Instead, he remained loyal to the PGA Tour—turning down LIV offers—and promptly fell into a prolonged slump. A win would be a feel-good moment for a guy who’s earned better.

If Echavarria flips the script and comes from behind, it’d be a massive result for the Mendoza Boys and another outright hit. Either way, it’ll be a meaningful close to the regular season.

Now, we turn the page and head to Memphis for the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind.

TPC Southwind returns as the host of the FedEx St. Jude Championship. The format shifts to a no-cut, 70-man field, meaning final participants are still fighting for their spot in Memphis. As such, the full field won’t be finalized until later tonight—but the core group is set and gives us plenty to talk about.

Rory McIlroy will not play. Citing the adjustment of final strokes, he’s chosen to rest and focus on the final two events, with no need to accumulate more points.

Other than Rory, this field will include everyone. In a 70-man, no-cut event, you can fully expect Scottie Scheffler to be the overwhelming favorite. He hasn’t been seen since his Open Championship victory, and—surprise, surprise—he fits well here.

Let’s take a look at the golf course and what we can expect.

🏌️ TPC Southwind – Course Details

• Location: Memphis, Tennessee

• Par: 70

• Yardage: ~7,244 yards

• Grass Types:

  • Fairways: Zoysia

  • Greens: Champion Bermuda

• Architect: Ron Prichard (with consultation from Fuzzy Zoeller & Hubert Green)

• Opened: 1988

• Bunkers: Over 90

• Water Hazards: In play on 11 holes

• Key Stats:

  • Typically ranks among the most difficult non-major courses on Tour

  • Historically favors strong approach play and scrambling

  • Putting on Bermuda greens plays a critical role

• Signature Hole:

  • Hole 11 – Par 3 with an island green (often compared to TPC Sawgrass’ 17th)

• Notable Finish:

  • Hole 18 – Par 4 with water lining the entire left side, requiring a precise approach to an exposed green

Course Fit Breakdown – TPC Southwind

DataGolf ranks TPC Southwind as a mid-pack course in terms of predictive strength. But one of the course’s primary defenses is water. Anytime you introduce water hazards, you spike the variability—and that’s going to add volatility to the leaderboard.

Take Scottie Scheffler, for example. In the Open Championship, he pulled a wedge from 130 yards into the deep stuff. From there, he hacked it to 10 feet and rolled in the putt. On average, that kind of mistake will cost a player—but in that moment, the best player in the world showed why he is. Now imagine the same swing at Southwind. Instead of rough, there’s a decent chance the ball finds a water hazard. That’s a full stroke penalty no matter what. Same swing, drastically different outcome. That’s what makes water such a defining feature—big numbers come into play fast.

We saw a similar situation at the 3M Open. Water was again the primary defense, and DataGolf suggested that accuracy was more important than distance. I argued that was slightly misleading. The winning formula seemed clearly defined: distance was a huge advantage if you could simply avoid the big miss. Kurt Kitayama proved that. He used his length as a major asset, paired with elite mid and long iron play.

But this week is different.

At Southwind, water only comes into play off the tee on about five holes. The real defense here is the missed fairway penalty. At TPC Twin Cities, the rough wasn’t all that penal—only the big miss was. But at Southwind, the big miss is extremely penal, and even a standard miss into the primary Bermuda rough is a problem. It adds a second layer of defense.

Just like this week at Wyndham, controlling the golf ball starts with hitting the fairway. That’s why I believe driving accuracy matters more than distance this week. The Bermuda rough here removes control from the player. It can jump, it can come out dead, and there's no consistency with spin. Case in point: Andrew Novak hit a pitching wedge 200 yards on a flyer lie. I’ve never seen a more confused look on a golfer’s face.

I’m not going to penalize distance altogether—it still matters. But it needs to be used tactically. One good example of that is Will Zalatoris. You might say, “Wait, Zalatoris wasn’t known for driving accuracy when he won here.” True. But that week, what carried him was his elite middle and long iron play.

That’s the single most important skill set in my opinion.

Look at the list of players who’ve thrived here:

• Sepp Straka

• Russell Henley

• Collin Morikawa

• Lucas Glover

• Hideki Matsuyama

• Viktor Hovland

• Tommy Fleetwood

• Abraham Ancer

They all share a consistent theme: precise middle-to-long iron play. And in most cases, they paired that with an accurate drive into the fairway. That’s how you unlock Southwind.

Adding another layer to that: the wind—or rather, the subtle Southwind that gives the course its name. It’s not known for being a consistently brutal weather site, but it can swirl and shift enough to create doubt, especially on mid to long irons into these small greens. It’s not the forecasted 20+ mph gusts that change everything—it’s the unpredictable, in-between stuff that messes with sight lines, trajectory control, and feel. That’s why I value elite iron players even more this week. When you can flight the ball both ways and hit your yardages under visual discomfort, that’s an edge.

Now, let’s talk greens. They’re small, grainy, Champion Bermuda. Not overseeded. That inherently places a premium on scrambling, but this is where things get interesting. DataGolf actually shows a lower-than-average correlation between success around the green and overall performance at this course.

And in some cases, that checks out. Look at Straka. Look at Morikawa. I’d say I fall somewhere in the middle here. There are different ways to skin a cat, but for me, the ideal player profile is someone who:

• Hits a ton of fairways

• Excels from 150–200 yards

• Can consistently find these small greens

A great short game never hurts—especially when GIR% drops—but I don’t think it’s how you win here. Hideki, widely regarded as one of the best around the greens, actually lost strokes ARG last year and still won. It was the irons and putter that carried him.

As for the putting surface: these are grainy Champion Bermuda greens, and again, they are not overseeded—a key detail to keep in mind when evaluating putting splits.

Key Model Inputs for TPC Southwind:

• Total Driving, with emphasis on accuracy over distance

• Iron Play, with focus on 150–200 yards

• Ability to flight irons in crosswinds or swirling conditions

• Short Game, especially on Bermuda lies

• Champion Bermuda Putting

• Course History Metrics

• Comp Courses for Contextual Fit:

  • East Lake

  • TPC Sawgrass

  • Harbour Town

  • PGA National

  • Pebble Beach

  • Sedgefield

  • Waialae

None of them are perfect, but each offers crossover insights that should help build a well-rounded model.

Making the Case Against Scottie Scheffler

To no one’s surprise, Scottie Scheffler sits at the top of the model inputs this week. And look—I’m scared of him every time he steps on a golf course. He’s the best tactical driver in the world when it comes to hitting it long and straight to a specific target. He’s also the best middle iron player in the game. He continues to break down every narrative built against him.

But if you’re looking to make a case against Scheffler this week, it starts on the greens.

Unlike courses like TPC Sawgrass or TPC Scottsdale—where overseed creates consistent and true putting surfaces—Southwind’s Champion Bermuda greens are grainy, bumpy, and full of variability. You can hit your line and still miss. They introduce randomness in a way that mirrors West Coast poa. That’s not Scheffler’s ideal environment.

We’ve seen it before. When the putting surface introduces a lack of control—whether it’s unpredictable grain, unexpected breaks, or late-day bumpiness—Scottie gets visibly uncomfortable. It showed up at the Scottish Open. He looked baffled. You saw it again at Pinehurst, where the wiregrass around greens created a layer of randomness he couldn’t shake. He’s at his best when he can calculate and control the outcome. But Southwind has just enough chaos baked into its greens to unsettle him.

Can he still win? Of course. He’s Scottie Scheffler.

But if he doesn’t, this would be the reason why.

If It’s Not Scheffler… Then Who?

If it’s not Scheffler, well—who is it?

I’ll admit, I’m a little terrified to even mention my shortlist. Mostly because… it’s a whole gang of losers. Names that, if you’ve been reading along, you’ve already seen mentioned—and yes, I’m still clinging to hope.

Your Winner: Russell Henley.
If it’s not this week, then sometime very soon. Henley is primed to cap off what’s been an incredible season. He closes the year with three perfect setups: Southwind, Caves Valley, and East Lake. His form and body of work suggest he’s ready to make a serious splash. It’s a massive opportunity. He can be a little gutless at times—but I put him a tier above the other mental midgets.

The Losers: Tommy Fleetwood (shit), Collin Morikawa (son of a bitch), and Patrick Cantlay (god damnit).
They all rate out incredibly well here. The model loves them. The data continues to support them. But you have to ask yourself—do you have any confidence they’re going to win a golf tournament right now? I sure don’t. Still, if you’re betting this event, keep an eye on these names. If the number drifts, you may have to hold your nose and click.

As for real contenders—guys who have both form and course fit—you have to include:

• Hideki Matsuyama (potential bounce back spot from Wyndham)

• Matt Fitzpatrick

• Lucas Glover

• Viktor Hovland

• Xander Schauffele

• Ben Griffin

• Sepp Straka

• Emiliano Grillo

• Daniel Berger (sneaky)

This is the prototype I’m looking for. The names may vary depending on price, but I feel pretty confident in the formula we’ve laid out. We’ll be back sometime on Monday to make some final decisions.

Here’s to a great Sunday of golf.

🏆 Your Winner: Hideki Matsuyama (33-1)

I absolutely love this spot for Hideki. The driver has been the one weak link in his game this year, and Sedgefield gives him plenty of chances to club down — a major win for his profile. Everything else has been strong. Most notably, in what feels almost un-Hideki-like, the putter has been great. He’s gained strokes putting in 9 of his last 10 starts. That’s a scary combination when paired with his iron play and touch around the greens. Don’t be surprised if he wins this week.

A-tier:

Lucas Glover (40-1) – His driving accuracy and iron play make him a great course fit. Of course, he's a past champion here, but what stands out more is how he’s continued to show solid form even on tracks that didn’t suit him perfectly. I think he's trending toward a serious run.

Si Woo Kim (35-1) – I just couldn’t ignore the iron form—it’s been lights out. I don’t care that he missed the cut at the 3M. Historically, South Koreans have fared well here, and if he can just be neutral with the putter, he could absolutely contend.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (50-1) – Maybe my favorite play down the board. His profile—driving accuracy, solid irons, short game, and putting—aligns with what has historically worked here. There’s no need to overpower this place, which suits him well. I like him anywhere from 90-1 down to 50-1.

Nico Echavarría (90-1) – He’s been sniffing around a breakthrough and feels due for a moment. This could be the place where he finally puts four rounds together.

Ryo Hisatsune (120-1) – The young Japanese talent grabbed a T3 here last year in his first appearance, and followed it up with a T4 at Innisbrook. There’s a trend developing, and I think this type of layout suits him nicely.

B-tier:

Michael Kim (100-1) – A well-rounded player who had a solid run of form earlier in the year. He caught my eye. If he finds a spark again, I think he could play his way into the mix.

Andrew Novak (70-1) – Another guy who flashed early-season form, especially with a strong showing at Harbour Town. He should feel at home in this part of the country, and the former Wofford Terrier fits nicely here.

Davis Thompson (70-1) – He’s improved here each time he’s teed it up, and I expect this to be a track he plays well at for years to come. The form isn't ideal, but the number is fair.

Byeong Hun An (110-1) – The putter’s been a disaster, no way around it. But the ball-striking has been terrific, and he has great history here. If he can somehow find a warm week with the flatstick, he’s got upside.

Kevin Roy (110-1) – Looked to be figuring things out at the John Deere and Rocket Mortgage. He consistently gains in driving accuracy, which gives him a puncher’s chance here. I’m not putting too much stock into his 3M or Barracuda finishes—very different setups.

Suggested Plays:

Hideki Matsuyama (33-1): Risking 0.6 units to win approximately 20 units

Lucas Glover (40-1): Risking 0.25 units to win approximately 10 units

Si Woo Kim (35-1): Risking 0.3 units to win approximately 10 units

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (50-1): Risking 0.2 units to win approximately 10 units

Nico Echavarría (90-1): Risking 0.11 units to win approximately 10 units

Ryo Hisatsune (120-1): Risking 0.08 units to win approximately 10 units

Michael Kim (100-1): Risking 0.05 units to win approximately 5 units

Andrew Novak (70-1) : Risking 0.07 units to win approximately 5 units

Davis Thompson (70-1) : Risking 0.07 units to win approximately 5 units

Byeong Hun An (110-1) : Risking 0.05 units to win approximately 5 units

Kevin Roy (110-1) : Risking 0.05 units to win approximately 5 units

Total Risk Budget = 1.7 units

To follow up on my preview—after taking time to review the board—I’ve made some decisions regarding this year’s championship.

I didn’t find much value at the top. While Matt Fitzpatrick is, in my opinion, the most likely winner, I wasn’t thrilled about taking him at a short number. As for Ben Griffin, there’s enough uncertainty to keep me away for now, though I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him lift the trophy.

I’ve opened my card with Hideki Matsuyama, for every reason outlined in the preview. From there, I’ve opted to load up on players in the mid-range and near triple digits. I felt this approach offered better value than forcing a play on a top-tier name I wasn’t sold on.

Mid-to-Longshots I'm Adding This Week:

Lucas Glover (40-1) – His driving accuracy and iron play make him a great course fit. Of course, he's a past champion here, but what stands out more is how he’s continued to show solid form even on tracks that didn’t suit him perfectly. I think he's trending toward a serious run.

Si Woo Kim (35-) – I just couldn’t ignore the iron form—it’s been lights out. I don’t care that he missed the cut at the 3M. Historically, South Koreans have fared well here, and if he can just be neutral with the putter, he could absolutely contend.

Michael Kim (100-1) – A well-rounded player who had a solid run of form earlier in the year. He caught my eye. If he finds a spark again, I think he could play his way into the mix.

Andrew Novak (70-1) – Another guy who flashed early-season form, especially with a strong showing at Harbour Town. He should feel at home in this part of the country, and the former Wofford Terrier fits nicely here.

Davis Thompson (70-1) – He’s improved here each time he’s teed it up, and I expect this to be a track he plays well at for years to come. The form isn't ideal, but the number is fair.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (50-1) – Maybe my favorite play down the board. His profile—driving accuracy, solid irons, short game, and putting—aligns with what has historically worked here. There’s no need to overpower this place, which suits him well. I like him anywhere from 90-1 down to 50-1.

Byeong Hun An (110-1) – The putter’s been a disaster, no way around it. But the ball-striking has been terrific, and he has great history here. If he can somehow find a warm week with the flatstick, he’s got upside.

Kevin Roy (110-1) – Looked to be figuring things out at the John Deere and Rocket Mortgage. He consistently gains in driving accuracy, which gives him a puncher’s chance here. I’m not putting too much stock into his 3M or Barracuda finishes—very different setups.

Nico Echavarría (90-1) – He’s been sniffing around a breakthrough and feels due for a moment. This could be the place where he finally puts four rounds together.

Ryo Hisatsune (120-1) – The young Japanese talent grabbed a T3 here last year in his first appearance, and followed it up with a T4 at Innisbrook. There’s a trend developing, and I think this type of layout suits him nicely.

Final Thought:

Rather than force action up top where the value felt thin, I found it more worthwhile to round out the card with talented players further down the board—each of whom brings a compelling case to the table. Look for my final betting card to be released on Wednesday night where I will nail down my final selections!

📌 The Setup

• Location: Greensboro, North Carolina

• Architectural Roots: Designed by Donald Ross in 1926; restored in 2007 by Kris Spence

• Event Host: Permanent home of the Wyndham Championship since 2008

📐 Course Specs

• Par: 70

• Yardage: ~7,127 yards

• Course Rating / Slope: 75.3 / 143

🧬 Design DNA

• Fairways: Tree-lined and tight — average width around 29–30 yards

• Greens: Champion Bermuda; firm, fast, and subtly contoured

• Rough / Surrounds: Bermuda rough with run-offs and collection areas

• Bunkers & Water: Over 50 bunkers and water hazards on six holes

As I write this, Kurt Kitayama is making a strong push in Minnesota with just three holes to play. Barring a big late surge from Sam Stevens or Jake Knapp, it looks like Kitayama will take it — a real win for data, as we were able to identify a great ball-striker primed to spike on relatively basic green complexes.

Next week, the tour heads to Greensboro, North Carolina, for one of my sneaky favorite events of the year: the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield Country Club. What a contrast this course is to TPC Twin Cities. According to DataGolf, Sedgefield is one of the most predictive courses on tour, year in and year out. What does that mean? It means players with a very specific skill set tend to consistently succeed here. And when someone finds success at Sedgefield, they tend to repeat it.

You might as well call it Webb Simpson Country Club. In 16 starts here, Webb has racked up seven top-5 finishes — plus several more top 10s and top 20s. Fittingly, he even named his daughter Wyndham (not a joke).

Unlike TPC Twin Cities, where water serves as the primary defense, Sedgefield challenges players with firm, undulating greens and narrow fairways that penalize missed tee shots. We’ll look to identify the skill sets — and the players — best suited to thrive in Greensboro.

I love this golf course.

TPC Twin Cities should serve as an important reminder to golf fans about what truly challenges the modern professional. Simply adding length doesn’t equate to difficulty. Without wind — and with soft, flat greens — it becomes target practice. At TPC Twin Cities, the only real hazard that forces players to think is the presence of water, which introduces risk and brings big numbers into play.

That’s not the case at Sedgefield.

Yes, it’s typically won with a score between 15 and 20 under, but the nature of the challenge is entirely different. This course cannot be “bombed and gouged.” The Bermuda rough at Sedgefield plays nothing like Kentucky bluegrass. Out of the rough, distance control becomes extremely difficult, and there’s virtually no chance to generate spin. To score here, you have to play from the fairway.

The recipe for success is well-defined and has held firm over the years:

• Accuracy off the tee > Distance

• Elite iron play

• Bermuda grass short game & bunker play

• Confidence with the putter on Bermuda greens

This course rewards a specific type of player — and it’s reflected in the leaderboards: Webb Simpson, Russell Henley, Billy Horschel, Jim Furyk, Kevin Na — all textbook fits.

There’s also a clear crossover with other positional tracks. TPC Sawgrass shares a striking overlap in winners and skill sets. Harbour Town is another close comp — a shorter course that demands accuracy, touch, and strategy over power.

To build out a model for this week, we’re taking a mixed-conditions approach tailored to what historically works at Sedgefield — and what correlates across similar tracks. We’re focusing on:

• Driving performance on less-than-driver courses, with an emphasis on accuracy over distance

• Overall approach play, highlighting wedge and mid-iron proximity

• Short game performance, especially around the green on grainy Bermuda grass

• Bermuda putting, with a lean toward those who putt well in the Southeast

• Course history and performance on comparable layouts:

  • TPC Sawgrass

  • Harbour Town

  • Copperhead (Innisbrook)

All three comps demand similar skill sets — precision off the tee, control on approach, strong scrambling, and comfort on Bermuda greens.

Let’s see who rises to the top when we plug in these conditions.

🔥 Hideki Matsuyama

I absolutely love this spot for Hideki. The driver has been the one weak link in his game this year, and Sedgefield gives him plenty of chances to club down — a major win for his profile. Everything else has been strong. Most notably, in what feels almost un-Hideki-like, the putter has been great. He’s gained strokes putting in 9 of his last 10 starts. That’s a scary combination when paired with his iron play and touch around the greens. Don’t be surprised if he wins this week.

👀 Ben Griffin

This is the type of course Ben Griffin should thrive on. If he hadn’t already made such a strong impression this season, I’d be calling this a breakout spot for him. The concern: he’s played a ton of golf in 2025, and the signs of regression are starting to show. That said, the course fit is undeniable.

🧠 Other Names to Circle

• Si Woo Kim – Former winner, elite on Bermuda, fits the comp course mold

• Lucas Glover – Always dangerous when he’s dialed with irons

• Matt Fitzpatrick – Positional golf specialist; thrives on short, strategic layouts

• Aaron Rai – One of the best drivers of the golf ball on tight courses

• Eric Cole – Short game wizard with growing consistency

• Bud Cauley – Trending nicely, and this would be a storybook return

• Denny McCarthy – Arguably the best Bermuda putter in the field

• JT Poston – Former champ with strong crossover form

• Davis Thompson – Big upside, gaining steam at the right time

• Luke Clanton – The young gun’s ceiling is high, and he’s fearless

I’ll be back later this week with a more refined model and potential outright targets. Stay tuned!

• Location: Blaine, Minnesota (north of Minneapolis–St. Paul)

• Designer: Arnold Palmer (with Tom Lehman consulting)

• Opened: 2000

• Par: 71

• Yardage: Approximately 7,431 yards

• Greens: Bentgrass

• Fairways: Bentgrass

• Rough: Kentucky bluegrass

• Water Hazards: In play on 15 of 18 holes

• Style: Parkland course with wide fairways and penal water hazards

• Signature Hole: No. 18 – Risk-reward par 5 with water guarding the entire left side

• Scoring Range: Winning scores typically between -15 to -24

• Key Skills Required: Ball-striking, par-5 scoring

Coming off of Scottie Scheffler’s dominant display at The Open Championship, we now shift gears and try to shake off the major hangover as the PGA Tour heads to Blaine, Minnesota, for the 3M Open. The transition from the intensity of a major to a lower-profile event like this can be tricky—not just for fans, but for the players themselves. It!ll be interesting to see how many can quickly recalibrate their form and contend on a very different layout.

Course Overview – TPC Twin Cities

The 3M Open is held at TPC Twin Cities, just north of Minneapolis in Blaine, Minnesota. Designed by Arnold Palmer with consultation from Tom Lehman, this Par 71 stretches out to just over 7,400 yards. While it may not be a major championship venue, it has enough bite to challenge players—largely thanks to the ever-present threat of water. Water hazards come into play on 15 of the 18 holes, which theoretically should put a premium on accuracy over distance. The idea being: avoid the big numbers by avoiding the big misses. But interestingly, that hasn’t always played out in the winner!s circle. Players like CameronChamp and Jhonattan Vegas—known more for power than precision—have triumphed here, showing that length can still be a valuable weapon if paired with timely iron play and a hot putter. This contrast raises an interesting question: Should TPC Twin Cities reward the accurate, or does raw power still carry the edge? What is clear, though, is that the course increases variance. The abundance of water and risk-reward opportunities means players are always walking a tightrope. We’ve seen examples of this volatility: Lee Hodges won here in 2023 in dominant fashion, but returned the following year and missed the cut entirely. The bentgrass greens are large and typically receptive, allowing for aggressive approach play when conditions are soft. But the rough—made up of Kentucky bluegrass—can make scrambling and recovery difficult, especially if players get out of position off the tee. While the course is scoreable—with winning scores often in the -17 to -24 range—it demands respect. The leaderboard often features players who can combine length with just enough control, and those who can manage the momentum swings that the layout inevitably brings.

🔍 Model-Based Picks: Key Profiles That Fit

Using a custom model focused on:

• Driving Distance

• Mid-to-Long Iron Play

• Low reliance on short game & putting

Here are several players who stand out as strong fits:

• Kurt Kitayama (40-1) – Big-hitting, streaky iron player with the ability to spike.

• Rico Hoey (55-1) – Sneaky strong ball striker who profiles well statistically.

• Luke Clanton (66-1) – The college standout is gaining steam, and this could be his breakthrough.

• Michael Thorbjornsen (35-1) – Rising star with high level ball-striking talent.

• Cameron Champ (50-1) – Former winner here, power + streaky approach play = upside.

• Lee Hodges (70-1) – 2023 champ, good long-iron profile despite putting limitations.

• Davis Thompson (45-1) – Trending with ball striking and can handle scoring fests.

🏆 Your Winner: Taylor Pendrith (33-1)

One name rises above the rest this week: Taylor Pendrith. He missed the cut at The Open, which might be a blessing—he's had time to return, reset, and adjust to TPC Twin Cities. His ball-striking numbers have been excellent in 2024, especially his combination of elite driving distance and strong approach play from 175–200+ yards. What separates Pendrith from many of the other "team no putt" names on this list is his ability to putt when needed. On a course where the greens won’t demand much creativity, that could be the edge that gets him across the finish line.

Suggested Plays:

Taylor Pendrith (33-1): Risking 0.3 units to win approximately 10 units

Kurt Kitayama (40-1): Risking 0.15 units to win approximately 5 units

Rico Hoey (55-1): Risking 0.1 units to win approximately 5 units

Luke Clanton (66-1): Risking 0.08 units to win approximately 5 units

Michael Thorbjornsen (35-1): Risking 0.15 units to win approximately 5 units

Cameron Champ (50-1): Risking 0.1 units to win approximately 5 units

Lee Hodges (70-1): Risking 0.07 units to win approximately 5 units

Davis Thompson (45-1): Risking 0.1 units to win approximately 5 units

Total Risk Budget =1.05 units